Transfer madness: The eight most overpriced deals this summer

Analysis

Robin Bairner | Chief Editor

Transfer spending has hit new heights this summer. With a record four deals already conducted over the magical €100 million mark, clubs are splashing out huge fees more than ever before.

The purchasing power of the Premier League, in particular, has been awesome. But players who have moved for €100m or more have historically had a habit of flopping. Spending big is no substitute for spending wisely.

So who are the players who have been most dramatically overpaid for so far this summer?

FootballTransfers has taken a close look. Using our unique Estimated Transfer Value (ETV), which is based on thousands of past historical transfers as well as hundreds of in-game data points, we have compared this summer’s biggest moves to the real-life deals that have taken place to calculate which clubs have most dramatically overspent on individual players.

The deals at the top end of the market were particularly expensive, with nine players bought for at least €40m more than their ETVs.

Here’s the rundown, with the players becoming increasingly overpriced.

9. Goncalo Ramos: PSG to AC Milan

Transfer fee: €74m

ETV: €31.8m

Overspend: €42.2m

PSG have done well to turn a profit on Portugal international striker Ramos, given they spent €65m on him three years ago only for him never to hold down a place in Luis Enrique’s first team.

There is, however, some logic behind Milan’s thinking here. Ramos’ ETV is low due to a lack of game time, but when he has played, he has scored goals. In Ligue 1 for PSG, he scored 0.64 per 90 minutes – roughly two goals in every three full games.

This may well prove a smarter deal than our numbers might suggest.

8. Savio: Man City to Tottenham

Transfer fee: €87.7m

ETV: €44.9m

Overspend: €42.8m

This is the first and certainly not the last time that both Manchester City and Tottenham appear on this list, with Savinho, or Savio as he is now known, one of the most controversial deals of the summer.

Signed from City Football Group club Troyes in 2024 for €25m, Enzo Maresca's side have made a profit of more than €60m on the Brazil midfielder - despite the fact he only scored two Premier League goals in two seasons.

He has had a peak ETV of €74.8m in the past and does have immense potential, so there may be method in Spurs' apparent madness, but this is, nevertheless, a deal that has been struck under a cloud of suspicion.

7. Marco Palestra: Atalanta to Chelsea

Transfer fee: €57m

ETV: €12.4m

Overspend: €44.6m

Palestra is the player who has by far the smallest ETV on this list, with Chelsea splashing out nearly five times his estimated value to bring him to Stamford Bridge.

The Blues have a history of getting these deals wrong, but they will hope Xabi Alonso can beat the market.

However, the price they have paid to sign a player who essentially only has one year of Serie A football behind him is sizeable.

6. Sandro Tonali: Newcastle to Tottenham

Transfer fee: €108m

ETV: €59.9m

Overspend: €49.1m

Coming off a poor season, Newcastle offloaded Tonali to Tottenham in a deal worth a club-record €108m for the London side.

Fuelled by desperation to strengthen their team after a relegation battle last term, and the ambition of manager Roberto De Zerbi to get them competing for Europe again, Spurs are spending big this summer.

They need Tonali to return to his best to come close to justifying this fee.

5. Ayyoub Bouaddi: Lille to Manchester City

Transfer fee: €95m

ETV: €43.5m

Overspend: €51.5m

Bouaddi leaves Lille as Ligue 1’s biggest export and also the most expensive 18-year-old in history, with Manchester City betting that he will fulfil his undoubted potential and become one of the best midfielders in the world.

The Etihad side have paid a big price for the 18-year-old, though. His ETV sits at €43.5m, with the Premier League giants coaxed into signing him for more than twice that fee.

Bouaddi looked the part at the World Cup, where he starred for Morocco, while he also excelled for Lille on the big stage in Europe, suggesting he has the mentality to succeed in England. He says he is moving for ‘the future’, but at his price point, he will be expected to deliver immediately.

4. Morgan Rogers: Aston Villa to Chelsea

Transfer fee: €137.3m

ETV: €73.4m

Overspend: €63.9m

Rogers’ rise over the past 18 months has been spectacular and has culminated in a record transfer to Chelsea

He is coming off a season in which he scored 14 goals and created 11 more across all competitions, backing up figures that he had produced a year earlier.

So there is no doubt about the 24-year-old’s talent, but Chelsea have still been forced to pay a huge premium to sign him by Villa, who were determined not to let him go. A giant fee was ultimately required to get the job done.

Current ETV

Morgan Rogers

M (CL), AM (L)

Chelsea

Morgan Rogers

M (CL), AM (L)

Chelsea

€73.4M

ETV Range

€55.1M - €91.8M

View full profile

3. Elliot Anderson: Nottingham Forest to Manchester City

Transfer fee: €135m

ETV: €69.4m

Overspend: €65.6m

Another highly rated, comparatively young England international to move for an enormous fee was Elliot Anderson, who City lures to the Etihad Stadium for a club-record fee.

A desire across the Premier League’s traditional Big 6 to sign central midfielders this summer has made the market extremely competitive and no doubt had a role in bumping Anderson’s price up.

Arsenal and Manchester United were both closely monitoring Anderson, creating a unique set of market conditions that Forest capitalised on.

2. Mateus Fernandes: West Ham to Tottenham

Transfer fee: €99m

ETV: €28.7m

Overspend: €70.3m

Relegated West Ham were another club to take advantage of the Big 6's appetite for central midfielders, cashing in for close to €100m on Portugal international Mateus Fernandes.

The 22-year-old did not even make Roberto Martinez’s World Cup cut, edged out by Samu Costa, who was bought by Al-Nassr from Mallorca for just €22m.

Fernandes has Premier League experience and was being closely monitored by Man Utd, but it feels that Spurs have dramatically overspent on this deal.

1. Yan Diomande: RB Leipzig to Real Madrid

Transfer fee: €125m

ETV: €51.8m

Overspend: €73.2m

One of only two non-Premier League deals on this list, the risk Real Madrid are taking on Diomande is crystallised by the figures here.

Yes, the Ivory Coast winger has established himself as a massively promising talent, but he’s only got a year at Leipzig behind him to back that up.

The Bundesliga side took advantage of interest from Liverpool and PSG, who both refused to match their asking price, to leverage an excellent deal for themselves here.

This could still be an excellent transfer, but Real Madrid need to get every ounce of Diomande’s potential from him to justify the price.

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Premier League summer transfers 2026: All the Done Deals

Written by

Robin Bairner | Chief Editor

Robin Bairner is an eminent digital football journalist who has been writing about the sport for major global publishers since 2006, specialising in Ligue 1 and Scottish football. He has been chief editor of the FootballTransfers global edition since its launch in 2020. Previously Bairner had been a key member of the editorial team which helped Goal.com become the world’s biggest football website. He covered multiple major competitions as a correspondent for Goal including the 2014 World Cup in Brazil, where he had the opportunity to work in Fortaleza. Among his highlights of the competition was Brazil’s quarter-final victory over Colombia.

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