Tottenham’s €100m Savinho gamble: Why it could pay off

19 Aug 2026 11:10 BST | 4 min read

Robin Bairner | Chief Editor

Accredited football journalist and editor covering the game since 2006

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Manchester City are in talks with Tottenham over Savinho, with Enzo Maresca’s side having put a €100 million (£85m) price tag on the head of the player.

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Even in a summer of inflated transfer business, City’s decision to pin the winger at such a price point, revealed by The Times, is an eye-catching decision.

Savinho, after all, is not a player who has yet delivered on his promise. Two seasons with City in the Premier League have brought only two goals while last season he produced just a single assist.

Pep Guardiola was left so unconvinced by the winger that he was nearly sold to Spurs a year ago. His game time in the Premier League was subsequently halved. Injuries had a role to play in this, but it was telling the South American started just 14 games across all competitions compared to 33 the previous year.

Consequently, Savinho’s Estimated Transfer Value (ETV) has plummeted. Over the space of 18 months, his valuation has dropped from a career-high €74.8m to €44.9m.

And yet, despite this evidence, Tottenham’s interest in the 22-year-old has a certain logic behind it.

Current ETV

Savinho

F (L), M (RL)

Man City

Savinho

F (L), M (RL)

Man City

ETV Range

€40.4M - €49.4M

Why Savinho could justify €100m transfer fee

Although Savinho was rarely used by Guardiola last season, he was an opportunity-generating machine for his colleagues.

In particular, he rated superbly in terms of both chance-creating passes and dribbles, while he was also well above average in terms of crosses, shots and xG.

Indeed, his overall performance as a winger in the Premier League comfortably rated among the top third of players in the role, despite his lack of opportunities.

© IMAGO - Savinho's Premier League performance, 2025/26

While Savinho also has the ability to play on both wings, could this really justify Spurs splashing out €100m on him?

Roberto De Zerbi’s side have already signed two players this summer for a similar fee. Sandro Tonali arrived from Newcastle for €108m and Mateus Fernandes joined from West Ham for €99m.

Savinho is better than both, according to data analytics firm SciSports, which rates players based on hundreds of in-game data points and gives them a SciSkill rating based on this.

The experts score Savinho at 110.8 – making him better than any of Spurs’ players last season or, indeed, any of their new arrivals. Xavi Simons comes in next at 105.5 with Tonali at 104.9.

Tottenham's top players - including Savinho (SciSports)

Rank	Name	SciSkill	Potential
1	Savinho	110.8	134.5
2	Xavi Simons	105.5	126.5
3	Sandro Tonali	104.9	115.9
4	Jan Paul van Hecke	104.1	112.7
5	Conor Gallagher	103.0	109.9

What really gives the Brazilian an X-factor for Tottenham is his potential. His ceiling is estimated at 134.5.

If he were to reach this, that would be an elite status comparable to Bayern Munich’s Michael Olise (135.6). Currently, the Frenchman is one of only four players in the world to score higher, including former Spurs striker Harry Kane, according to SciSports.

Tottenham’s €100m decision for Savinho is not based on the player they have seen at Manchester City. Instead, it will be a gamble based what Savinho can become, and crucially, their belief as to whether they can unlock it.