Pocognoli has a Scotland problem - and the answer may be staring him in the face

Analysis

Robin Bairner | Chief Editor

Sebastien Pocognoli has discovered that life comes at you quickly as an international boss.

Four matches into his brave new era as Scotland manager, the Belgian finds his system under fire and facing more questions than answers after a quartet of fixtures that ended with two defeats, a draw and just a single win.

And yet for a period at Hampden on Tuesday against Slovenia, he appeared on course to be steering the Scots towards a Nations League promotion playoff. Ryan Christie’s scrappy goal had given the hosts a lead that they would lose during a lamentable second half that invited scrutiny on his chosen 3-4-2-1 shape.

Defeat leaves Scotland facing a likely third-placed finish unless they can muster a shock victory in Switzerland – assuming, of course, a home loss against North Macedonia is avoided on 13 November.

Given the nature of the Scots’ two home performances under Pocognoli, that cannot be taken for granted.

Pocognoli overseeing difficult transition period

While criticism of the new coach is warranted after a disappointing start, it should also be measured.

Not only does Pocognoli arrive to replace Steve Clarke, Scotland’s most successful coach by any measure in the last 25 years, but he comes with the remit of ripping up his predecessor’s cautious approach. Instead, he is charged with the task of producing a Scotland side that produces modern, aggressive and attacking football.

The transition that the former Monaco and Club Brugge coach is being asked to oversee is unlike anything a Scotland manager has faced before, but while a difficult transition period was perhaps inevitable, Pocognoli’s choice to play a 3-4-2-1 system with the available personnel does seem to be making life unnecessarily difficult for himself.

Who exactly in this Scotland squad does the formation suit? It’s a system that requires directness and aggression in attack, yet it is being played by players who are largely without those qualities. Ben Gannon-Doak is the notable exception, but his impact is neutered by dint of playing as a wing-back.

Andy Robertson, meanwhile, is no longer the attacking force he was at his peak, particularly when asked to play four games in the space of a fortnight, and yet he appeared expected to be a crucial offensive outlet.

And it certainly does not suit striker Oli McBurnie, whose 20th international without a goal passed without a meaningful chance. His strength in the air has been negated by a lack of width, while his strong work with his back to goal has been nullified in recent internationals by a lack of running power around him.

The defence, meanwhile, looks as vulnerable as ever. As it was put to me by a colleague: “Pocognoli’s looked at a team with no good centre-backs this century and thought: ‘Let’s play three of them.’”

With Angus Gunn also struggling to establish himself as an international-class goalkeeper, the margin for error is particularly small.

The philosophy’s not the problem, but that plan needs tweaking

There are elements of this that Pocognoli, of course, cannot immediately fix. Scotland are not going to stumble across a world-class centre-back or two, and while Gunn’s place must come under question, there is no dramatic upgrade ready to step in to play in goal.

Clarke protected these players as much as possible with his pragmatism. It largely worked against lesser teams, yet the lack of Scotland’s quality was more ruthlessly exploited in major tournaments, where opponents are not so forgiving.

Pocognoli does not have that luxury. He has been appointed to drag Scottish football into the 21st century, kicking and screaming if he must.

However, his high, aggressive press left the backline exposed by both Switzerland and Slovenia. The margin of error is substantially smaller when playing in such a manner and needs hours of drilling on the training ground for players who are, by and large, unfamiliar with both the system and the style.

So what can he do in November against North Macedonia and Switzerland?

Moving back to a 4-2-3-1 has to be an option on the table – and it is a system that Pocognoli used at Monaco. This shift would allow square pegs to go in square holes. Gannon-Doak and Robertson would be the principal beneficiaries, while Scott McTominay’s likely return will offer McBurnie some much-needed support.

It would be wrong to write the project off following just four matches and arguably only one genuinely poor result.

If the Scotland team is to be given a modern overhaul, a period of difficulty was perhaps inevitable, but while Pocognoli must be strong enough to stick to his philosophy, he also needs to be smart enough to tweak it to his players’ needs. Now he’s got just over five weeks to find a solution.