Why have Europe's super clubs gone cold on De Zerbi?

Sam McGuire
Sam McGuire
  • 14 Feb 2024 12:45 GMT
  • 5 min read
Roberto de Zerbi, Brighton, 2023/24
© IMAGO

It wasn’t that long ago that Roberto De Zerbi was viewed as the potential heir to Pep Guardiola at Manchester City. The Italian tactician had Brighton playing some unbelievable football having succeeded Graham Potter in the dugout of the Amex.

He guided the Seagulls to a sixth-place finish as well as reaching an FA Cup semi-final. De Zerbi’s Brighton picked up wins over Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester United and Arsenal while also taking a point off Manchester City.

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Brighton played with a confidence and a fluidity that is usually exclusive to a Guardiola team. It was no surprise to hear the Catalan-born coach praising De Zerbi and claiming that the one-time Sassuolo boss was "one of the most influential managers in the last 20 years" because of his brand of football. The three-time Champions League-winning coach continued: "There is no team playing the way they play. It is unique."

He was linked with the Chelsea job before those at Stamford Bridge turned to former Spurs boss Mauricio Pochettino. De Zerbi seemed destined for a job at a European powerhouse.

Things can quickly change in football though.

Jurgen Klopp has announced he is leaving Liverpool at the end of the season. Xavi has revealed he won’t be extending his stay with Barcelona beyond the current campaign. Erik Ten Hag continues to be under pressure at Old Trafford following a difficult second season in charge of Manchester United while Pochettino could well soon be shown the exit door at Chelsea. If Bayern Munich fail to win the Bundesliga - they are currently five points off the pace - Thomas Tuchel could soon be replaced.

And yet these clubs seemingly aren’t battling it out for De Zerbi. Instead, there’s a scramble for Xabi Alonso. Bayern Munich, Chelsea and Liverpool are believed to be in for the former midfield maestro having been blown away by what he’s doing with Bayer Leverkusen. Barca have been linked with De Zerbi but recent reports seem to suggest they are only lukewarm on the Brighton boss after seeing the Seagulls struggle this term. Julian Nageslmann is available and Jose Mourinho, recently sacked by Roma, is once again on the managerial market. With no compensation to pay, the self-proclaimed Special One could be viewed as a more viable managerial appointment by some clubs wanting immediate success.

Why has De Zerbi’s stock fallen so quickly, though? Is his style not sustainable? Is it not conducive to winning?

The Seagulls are currently ninth in the Premier League following their last-minute loss to Spurs on Saturday. They are six points off sixth-placed Manchester United but only six points clear of 12th-placed Fulham. Your opinion on their season to date is likely tied to whether or not you are a glass-half-full or half-empty kind of person.

Brighton have conceded 40 goals in 24 matches. For context, that is more than the likes of Wolves, Chelsea, Fulham and relegation-threatened Everton. De Zerbi’s men have kept just two clean sheets all season. Defensively solid, they are not.

Their form recently has seen them stall. They have won just three of their last 10 in the Premier League. In fact, having won five of their opening six this term, they won just four of their next 18. It is easy to see why they are struggling to pick up maximum points - they are allowing 1.7 goals against per 90 (this sees them rank 13th in the league for this metric) while their Expected Goals Against total of 40.3 can only be surpassed by eight teams.

They are giving up chances at a high rate and conceding goals in a way that is befitting a mid-table team. It is the worst combo.

Despite their dominance with the ball - the are averaging 62% possession, the second highest in the Premier League, they aren’t controlling matches, and this is no doubt a red flag for clubs looking for a manager. More often than not, managers can dominate the ball and then control the space. Eventually, you see the results in the final third. Brighton, however, control the ball but aren’t able to dominate the space and this sees them having sterile possession. As a result, they’re forced to be a little more adventurous and this leaves them exposed defensively.

Unless De Zerbi can prove that he can convert ball dominance into total dominance, top teams are likely going to hold off on making a move for him. If he can develop that side of things, they’ll soon be scrambling to hire him. But he looks set to miss out on some of the bigger jobs this summer.

Read more about: Premier League, Brighton

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