Unhopeful hosts Mexico have plenty of doubts, uncertainty and scepticism going into their own World Cup finals

Analysis

By Martin del Palacio Langer for World Soccer in the 2026 World Cup Special, May 2026.

Despite hosting the World Cup for a record third time, Mexico arrive at 2026 surrounded by an unusual feeling: cautious scepticism. Ahead of most tournaments, excitement around El Tri begins months before the opening match. This time, the mood has been more complicated.

The root of that sentiment can be traced back to Qatar 2022. Mexico’s elimination in the group stage, having reached the knockout stages seven World Cups in a row, shattered a sense of continuity that supporters had taken for granted. For decades, reaching the last 16 had become the norm. When that streak ended, so did much of the patience around the national team.

The following years did little to restore confidence. Disappointing performances in the 2023 CONCACAF Gold Cup and the 2024 Copa America deepened the frustration, while a carousel of coaches between 2022 and 2024 created the sense that the programme had lost its direction. Stability returned only when Javier Aguirre was called back for a third spell in charge.

The arrival of the former Atletico Madrid boss did not transform Mexico into a spectacular side, but it did restore order. Under his leadership, the team won the 2024-25 CONCACAF Nations League and followed that up with success later that summer at the 2025 Gold Cup, results that helped rebuild credibility. His approach has been pragmatic: reinforce the defence, simplify the structure, and reduce mistakes. It is not glamorous football, but it has made Mexico competitive again.

Still, doubts remain. Unlike previous generations, this Mexico squad lacks a strong presence at Europe’s biggest clubs, and this season has been plagued by injuries to key players. Midfielder Marcel Ruiz gave everyone a scare with a knee problem, while second-choice keeper Luis Malagon tore his Achilles. Rightbacks Julian Araujo (thigh) and Rodrigo Huescas (knee) are also crocked, while captain Edson Alvarez and young starlet Gilberto Mora will barely be fit in time for the start of the tournament.

Much of Mexico’s offensive hope rests on Raul Jimenez who, at 35, is surely at his final World Cup. Despite a long and successful Premier League career and an impressive international record, Jimenez has never been able to perform at his absolute best on this stage. If Mexico are to make noise in 2026, he will almost certainly have to lead the way.

In the end, expectations are modest. Mexico will hope the energy of a home World Cup – until the last 16, at the latest – particularly with the altitude and atmosphere at the Estadio Azteca, can push the team beyond its limits. Realistically, however, another trip to the round of 16 remains the most likely outcome.

Javier Aguirre's view

You have been in charge for almost two years now. How do you feel about Mexico just weeks before the World Cup kicks off?

We’re on the path we want. There are still adjustments to be made and the team needs to improve in certain areas, but the direction we’re heading is the right one. We’ve had good preparation. We have a solid core of players and we’ve achieved good results. The key now is to find, by May 30, the 26 players who can represent us at the World Cup.

Mexico have had up to 12 injured players recently, some of whom were undisputed starters. What’s their latest situation?

Of course, I’m thinking about those players. We’ll wait until the very last day to see who we can count on, because we’re talking about important players who have won titles for us. But I want to make something clear: as long as I’m the team’s manager, no one will be called up unless they are at 100% – not just physically, but also in terms of match fitness.

In March the team secured good draws against strong opponents like Portugal and Belgium. What were your conclusions?

The team’s attitude was very good. There were spells in several matches where we played good football. We’re still making some mistakes that have cost us. They were strong opponents, which is what we were looking for. Overall, it was a positive experience.

Despite those results, there were boos at the Estadio Azteca against Portugal...

The only place we can speak is on the pitch – that’s where the fans judge you, much more than anything I can say. We have to play well, we have to win. They want to see their team win, and sometimes that’s not possible. But I also think there have been moments when the fans have enjoyed the team. I believe the supporters are free to express themselves however they want.

What do you think about your draw?

I have staff members following each of our opponents’ matches, so we’ll arrive as prepared as possible. We’re focused on the game against South Africa and, depending on that result and the other match, we’ll be able to create a more specific plan for South Korea. Czechia is a physically strong team, perhaps without standout individual talent, but with very solid players. I think the home advantage will play in our favour…I hope so.

This will be your third World Cup as Mexico manager. How is the public responding to your team?

When I walk down the street, I feel that people are very excited about the national team. I also played in a World Cup at home [in 1986], and it’s very demanding on the pitch because you carry the dreams of an entire country. As I said, now it’s up to us to find the right players, both in terms of quality and personality and they are not making things easy for me. In fact, I’m pleased because in every position we have quality options. There’s practically no position where I would say: “this player has no replacement.”

Tactics

During almost all of his tenure, Javier Aguirre has used a possession-based 4-3-3, but a lack of quality in the front three has forced him to experiment. In search of solutions, he has sometimes used a 3-4-2-1, which seems to suit the strengths of his players, but he’ll probably continue to experiment right up until the last minute and switch when needed during the tournament too.

Throughout his time, the goalkeeper spot has been one of the big headaches. Luis Malagon was first choice until a string of mistakes for both club and country saw him lose his spot to Raul Rangel, a higher-ceiling player but a goalkeeper who also doesn’t inspire enormous confidence. This has prompted the return of legendary keeper Guillermo Ochoa, who, at 40, might be the best choice available.

In defence, Johan Vasquez, Cesar Montes and Jesus Gallardo are locks to start, with Jorge Sanchez, Israel Reyes and Richard Ledezma vying for the right-back spot. With Marcel Ruiz’s absence now likely averted and Alvaro Fidalgo declaring for Mexico, 17-year-old wonderkid Gilberto Mora may have to settle for sub cameos – if he recovers from his own injury in time. Raul Jimenez will lead the line, but the slots alongside him are still up for grabs.

The View From Mexico

“Mexico simply do not have a realistic chance of being among the top eight teams in the world – at best, they belong in the top 16. With a squad that has barely five players in the top leagues – not all of them starters – and modest results against strong opponents, dreaming of making history looks very difficult.” - Felix Fernandez, ex-Mexico goalkeeper

“Mexico are expected to reach at least the round of 16. Playing at home has always been a significant advantage, and this time should be no exception. Although we unfortunately do not have our most talented generation, the squad should still be good enough to play five matches.” - Leon Krauze, journalist

The Coach

Aguirre is arguably the best Mexican manager in history and its most reliable figure when things feel unstable. His career, mostly built in Spain and with the Mexico national team, has never been about the spectacular but about order and results. He can organise, simplify and steady the ship.

In his third stint with El Tri, he has once again restored competitiveness after a turbulent period. Still, there is a ceiling to his pragmatism, and it remains to be seen whether he can elevate a limited generation into something greater.

Long-term, he will be replaced by his assistant and ex-captain Rafael Marquez.