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TRANSFERS
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Transfer madness: The seven most overpriced deals this summer
Updated: 14 Aug 2026 15:53 BST |
6 min read
Analysis
Transfer spending has hit new heights this summer. With a record four deals already conducted over the magical €100 million mark, clubs are splashing out huge fees more than ever before.
The purchasing power of the Premier League has, in particular, been awesome. But players who have moved for €100m or more have historically had a habit of flopping. Spending big is no substitute for spending wisely.
So who are the players who have been most dramatically overpaid for so far this summer?
FootballTransfers has taken a close look. Using our unique Estimated Transfer Value (ETV), which is based on thousands of past historical transfers as well as hundreds of in-game data points, we have compared this summer’s biggest deals to the real-life deals that have taken place to calculate which clubs have most dramatically overspent on individual players.
The deals at the top end of the market were particularly expensive, with seven players bought for at least €40m above their ETVs.
Here’s the rundown, with the players becoming increasingly overpriced.
7. Goncalo Ramos: PSG to AC Milan
Transfer fee: €74m
ETV: €31.8m
Overspend: €42.2m
PSG have done well to turn a profit on Portugal international striker Ramos, given they spent €65m on his three years ago only for him never to hold down a place in Luis Enrique’s first team.
There is, however, some logic behind Milan’s thinking here. Ramos’ ETV is low due to a lack of game time, but when he has played, he has scored goals. In Ligue 1 for PSG, he scored 0.64 per 90 minutes – roughly 2 goals in every 3 full games.
This may well prove a smarter deal than our numbers might suggest.
6. Marco Palestra: Atalanta to Chelsea
Transfer fee: €57m
ETV: €12.4m
Overspend: €44.6m
Palestra is the player who has by far the smallest ETV on this list, with Chelsea splashing out nearly five times his estimated value to bring him to Stamford Bridge.
The Blues have a history of getting these deals wrong, but with Xabi Alonso now in charge, they will hope the Spaniard can beat the market.
However, the price they have paid to sign a player who essentially only has one year of Serie A football behind him is sizeable.
5. Sandro Tonali: Newcastle to Tottenham
Transfer fee: €108m
ETV: €59.9m
Overspent: €49.1m
Coming off a poor season, Newcastle offloaded to Tonali to Tottenham in a deal worth a club-record €108m for the London side.
Fuelled by desperation to strengthen their team after a relegation battle last term, and the ambition of manager Roberto De Zerbi to get them competing for Europe again, Spurs are spending big this summer.
They need Tonali to return to his best to come close to justifying this fee.
Morgan Rogers: Aston Villa to Chelsea
Transfer fee: €137.3m
ETV: €73.4m
Overspend: €63.9m
Rogers’ rise over the past 18 months has been spectacular and has been capped by a record transfer to Chelsea.
He is coming off a season in which he scored 14 goals and created 11 more across all competitions, backing up fixtures that he had produced a year earlier.
So there is no doubt about the 24-year-old’s talent, but Chelsea have still been forced to pay a huge premium to sign him by Villa, who were determined not to let him go. A giant fee was ultimately required to get the job done.
Current ETV
Morgan Rogers
M (CL), AM (L)
Chelsea
Morgan Rogers
M (CL), AM (L)
Chelsea
ETV Range
€55.1M - €91.8M
Elliot Anderson: Nottingham Forest to Manchester City
Transfer fee: €135m
ETV: €69.4m
Overspend: €65.6m
Another highly rated, comparatively young England international to move for an enormous fee was Elliot Anderson, who City splashed a club-record fee on to lure to the Etihad Stadium.
A desire across the Premier League’s traditional Big 6 to sign central midfielders this summer has made the market extremely competitive and no doubt had a role in bumping Anderson’s price up.
Arsenal and Manchester United were both closely monitoring Anderson, creating a unique set of market conditions that Forest capitalised on.
Mateus Fernandes: West Ham to Tottenham
Transfer fee: €99m
ETV: €28.7m
Overspend: €70.3m
Relegated West Ham were another side who took advantage of the market among the Big 6 for central midfielders to cash in close to €100m on Portugal international Mateus Fernandes.
The 22-year-old did not even make Roberto Martinez’s World Cup cut, edged out by Samu Costa, who was bought by Al-Nassr from Mallorca for just €22m.
Fernandes has Premier League experience and was being closely monitored by Man Utd, but it feels that Spurs have dramatically overspent on this deal.
Yan Diomande: RB Leipzig to Real Madrid
Transfer fee: €125m
ETV: €51.8
Overspend: €73.2
One of only two non-Premier League deals on this list, the risk that Madrid are taking signing Diomande is crystallised by the figures here.
Yes, the Ivory Coast winger has established himself as a massively promising talent, but he’s only got a year at Leipzig behind him to back that up.
The Bundesliga side took advantage of interest from Liverpool and PSG, who both refused to match their asking price, to leverage an excellent deal for themselves here.
This could still be an excellent transfer, but Real Madrid need to get every ounce of Diomande’s potential from him to justify the price.
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