Why Casemiro is Man Utd's most important player and Amorim's biggest problem

Robin Bairner

• Updated: 10 Nov 2025 10:43 GMT
• 4 min read

Analysis

Casemiro’s Manchester United U-turn has been remarkable. When Ruben Amorim first arrived through the doors of Old Trafford, the veteran Brazilian seemed earmarked for the exit, yet 12 months on, he is undoubtedly the Red Devils most important player.

The numbers make it clear just how important the 33-year-old has become this season. United have conceded 20 Premier League goals this season, of which Casemiro has been on the field for just five. And he has contributed directly to four of United’s 19 Premier League goals.

In other words, the former Real Madrid star has played 63% of Man Utd’s league minutes this season but has been present for just 25% of the goals they have let in. Meanwhile, he has had a hand in 21% of the goals they have scored – that’s more than €76 million summer striker signing Benjamin Sesko, by the way.

Current ETV

Casemiro

DM, M (C)

Man Utd

Casemiro

DM, M (C)

Man Utd

€7.2M

ETV Range

€6.1M - €8.3M

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Anyone who doubts Casemiro’s impact on Amorim’s side would do well to look at Saturday’s 2-2 draw against Tottenham.

United were 1-0 up and looking comfortable when he left the park midway through the second half. Just 20 minutes later, they trailed 2-1. Although Matthijs de Ligt salvaged a draw, there was a sense that two points were dropped.

Amorim on Casemiro’s influence

“During the game, we felt like the three points were there to take home. But then with everything that happened, Harry Maguire and Casemiro coming off and conceding two goals... we scored again and it's a point,” Amorim told TNT Sports after the game.

“We need to look at ourselves, we were not pressing with the same intensity, we felt comfortable, but we need to understand that if we had more bravery, we could have killed the game. But sometimes this happens, you have a better first half than second.”

It’s true, sometimes these things happen, but there’s an increasingly strong correlation to Man Utd functioning well and Casemiro being on the park.

Big decision on the horizon

But while Casemiro’s form is undoubtedly a boon for Amorim at present, it poses a major headache for the Red Devils in the future.

He is out of contract at the end of the season, and the prevailing logic is that he will leave as a free agent next summer. He is, after all, on a very handsome wage and will be 34-and-a-half by the time 2026/27 kicks off. There is only so long he can keep going for.

This poses a major problem for Amorim and United, though. How can they replace a player who has, so far, proven irreplaceable this season?

Will Amorim finally hand the midfield reins to Kobbie Mainoo, a player who data analytics experts SciSports report is similar in style to Casemiro and, therefore, a strong option? That seems unlikely given the Portuguese’s reticence to lean on the England international.

Casemiro’s replacement: Transfer options

Naturally, eyes will turn towards the transfer market, where there are a handful of promising options.

Brighton’s Carlos Baleba is perhaps the most natural like-for-like alternative with the Premier League experience that Man Utd have decided they ideally want due to Sesko’s early season struggles.

With a price tag that is likely to exceed €100 million, it will likely take a club-record fee to sign the Cameroon international star.

Eintracht Frankfurt midfielder Hugo Larsson is another option suggested by SciSports as a suitable Casemiro replacement. The 21-year-old is thought to have a similar potential as Baleba.

A third option is Lille’s rising star Ayyoub Bouaddi, who at 18 years old has already distinguished himself against Real Madrid in the Champions League and is set for a stellar career.

Other players in the Premier League worth exploring are Sunderland’s Noah Sadiki and Brentford’s Yegor Yarmolyuk, both of whom have seen their reputations rise rapidly this season off the back of strong stars to the campaign.

Whomever United plump for, the decision over Casemiro’s Old Trafford heir promises to be one of the biggest that Amorim will take since arriving at the club.