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Rohl backs under fire Rangers striker Chermiti – but is he right?
Youssef Chermiti was Rangers’ marquee summer signing, but with the former Everton striker struggling to make a positive impression at Ibrox, was manager Danny Rohl right to back him?
Rohl, who has got most things right since arriving in Glasgow in the autumn, was emphatic in his support of Chermiti.
The 21-year-old, who arrived in a deal worth €8.6 million from Everton, joined Rangers with the expectation that he would be a prolific scorer. He has fallen well short of that mark, netting just four times in 28 matches across all competitions.
Rohl on Chermiti
Despite this poor return, Rohl backed the striker to come good, despite admitting that it has been a “tough” period for the No.9.
“It will come, I totally believe, because I see a lot of things in him,” the German said having started Chermiti in the midweek draw against Motherwell.
“It's again the small moments and it comes not just when you think 'should I shoot or not?' No, it's about hard working again, trying your best, coming again in situations, and then we celebrate him.
“It was the Celtic game when he scored, he turned the game with fantastic goals, and he can do this again. I believe, totally.”
His double against Celtic in the New Year Old Firm derby was supposed to be his breakout moment in a Rangers shirt, but he has not scored since.
That’s not to say that there is no cause for some optimism. Chermiti has hit the target with 51.7% of his shots on target, which is the third-highest figure in the league for those players who have attempted at least 20 shots (per FBRef). With 1.4 shots on target per 90, meanwhile, he sits fourth overall in that statistic.
Is he underperforming?
For those who believe in expected goals (xG), there is further cause for optimism, particularly when Chermiti is compared to Rangers’ January targets Kieron Bowie and Tawanda Maswanhise.
He outperforms both players when it comes to xG per 90 with 0.376. Bowie was on 0.342 before he left to join Verona for €6m while the Premiership’s top scorer in Maswanhise lies on 0.354.
This is important because only a few exceptional players outperform their xG for prolonged periods. With 4 goals from 4.02xG, Chermiti is right where he is expected to be. Maswanhise, on the other hand, is dramatically outperforming expectations and the logic would suggest that such form is unlikely to continue.
He does lag both Lawrence Shankland and Daezan Maeda in this regard, but this pair are long-established elite Premiership forwards while the Hearts man has a figure inflated by three penalties.
Scottish Premiership Striker Comparison (WyScout)
| Name | Club | Goals | xG | xG per 90 |
| Youssef Chermiti | Rangers | 4 | 4.02 | 0.376 |
| Tawanda Maswanhise | Motherwell | 13 | 7.25 | 0.354 |
| Kieron Bowie | Hibs | 8 | 6.48 | 0.342 |
| Lawrence Shankland | Hearts | 11 | 8.32 | 0.383 |
| Daezan Maeda | Celtic | 7 | 8.35 | 0.385 |
Chermiti’s biggest problem explained
One of the issues that players can find when they arrive at a club like Rangers is that there is an immediate expectation to star.
Chermiti’s issue is that he’s not ready for that, according to data analytics firm SciSports. Instead, he has the potential to develop into a key figure.
The data experts indicate that the centre-forward area is clearly Rangers’ weakness. Each player is given a SciSkill score generated from hundreds of in-game data points from historical performances. Derek Cornelius is regarded as the Gers’ top star with a score of 70.9, just ahead of Mohamed Diomande (70.2) and Nicolas Raskin (69.8).
Chermiti, meanwhile, only has a rating of 55.4. With Bojan Miovski sitting on 55.8, Rohl’s hands are tied when it comes to picking his least bad option.
Chermiti is a potential star
Where there is hope for the Portuguese, though, is that he has a potential score of 73.1 – a score that would make him the best player in the Rangers squad if he were to attain it overnight.
Of course, there is no magic formula for such a dramatic and sudden improvement. Smart coaching and time are the two key ingredients.
Rohl will have to persist with Chermiti for months and perhaps even years to see the best of the striker. He may have the backing of his manager, but with Ibrox an unforgiving venue for young players, it remains unclear if he still has the time.
Related stories:
Rangers receive €15m Chermiti bid as Danny Rohl makes firm decision
Danny Rohl FUMES as Rangers stars BANNED from Scottish Cup
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