MLS's proposed playoff reform has caused a stir - but is it really indefensible?

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Tom Weber | Writer

Multilingual sports writer who specialises in European football and American soccer.

Major League Soccer is reportedly planning to revamp its playoff system yet again, and the reaction to the news has been overwhelmingly negative - at least on social media.

Earlier this week, The Guardian published the scoop that MLS was mulling over a new playoff reform to go along with next year's switch to a European-style calendar.

MLS has insisted all along that it would keep its playoffs despite the big upcoming changes, which will also potentially include significant amendments to the salary cap and roster regulations - if ratified in time for the new season.

While the report makes sure to emphasize that nothing has been finalized yet, the fact that numerous sources from around the league were able to inform the outlet about the proposed playoff revamp means that there is a good chance of it happening.

This is nothing out of the ordinary for MLS, as the league has frequently tinkered with its postseason. The difference is that with seemingly every update, the reaction from supporters becomes more and more negative.

MLS keeps messing with the playoffs

The previous changes, inaugurated in 2023, were not received particularly positively, and after three seasons of this new model, it is fair to say that this reaction was largely justified.

The creation of best-of-three series has made for some exciting match-ups, to be sure, but it hasn't been a groundbreaking change. If anything, it has led to a sense of oversaturation. Do we really need to see Miami play Nashville five or six times per year?

And that's before we even get to the so-called Wild Card games, which have been completely pointless because they only delay the inevitable. Atlanta beating Supporters' Shield winners Miami in round one in 2024 was fun, but no Wild Card winner has made it beyond the conference semi-finals. If you finish eighth or ninth in the regular season, chances are you won't miraculously make a deep playoff run.

The proposed new changes would make the playoffs even more convoluted. As many as 20 of MLS's 30 teams are slated to qualify based on their regular-season performance in the league's new five-division setup.

A combined table would be created ahead of the postseason, with the top eight having to take part in a play-in round. The winners of this preliminary round would advance straight to the quarterfinals.

Instead of being eliminated, the losers would get a second chance, akin to the system utilised in Australian rules football. The teams that finished 13 through 20 in the combined table would play each other in a one-off game for a chance to face the teams that came 9-12.

The winners of those four games would then face the losers from the top eight. After that, the quarterfinals would start, with every match being single elimination until a champion is crowned.

Teams would be reseeded after every round to make sure that those who finish higher in the regular season have a tangible advantage. The goal is to make the regular season more meaningful.

Could the new system work?

Logic would dictate that increasing the number of teams that make the playoffs from 16 (already a ridiculous amount) to 20 would run counter to the idea of incentivizing the regular season. Many fans certainly want to see fewer - not more - teams in the postseason.

But it's important to remember that MLS employs business logic, not sporting logic. Soccer has long since ceased to be just a sport - it is a product that needs to be packaged and sold.

Nowhere is that more apparent than in MLS, a single-entity league that is in the unique position of having to compete with more popular divisions in its home markets. MLS is jockeying for eyeballs with Liga MX and the Premier League.

More high-stakes games mean more money, and the simple fact is that elimination matches are more attractive and easier to promote than regular season fixtures. More money should, in theory, result in more development and growth of the "product."

As Tom Hindle points out, the thinking behind increasing the number of playoff teams and games can't be divorced from the expected liberalization of roster rules - the two are closely entangled.

By raising the salary cap and offering more post-season spots, MLS hopefully incentivizes more teams to invest in their squads, resulting in better players coming to MLS and thereby raising the overall quality and attractiveness of the league.

Of course, that's a simplified way of looking at things, but MLS's decision to expand the playoffs surely can't just be put down to pure greed; there has to be some developmentalist thinking. The league wouldn't be where it is today without careful long-term planning.

There is still growth to be achieved. MLS is fighting for relevance not just in the context of the US not being a typical "soccer country" but also within the larger ecosystem of the sport.

If MLS feels that more investment in the league is worth the risk of potentially scaring off some fans with a complex behemoth of a playoff system, then it should take that gamble.

Ideally, though, you wouldn't have to make this trade-off. Getting fans to buy into the new system is possible if it is explained correctly and there are engaging narratives to get excited about.

Unfortunately, MLS has repeatedly failed to adequately promote itself, so you wouldn't want to bet on the league getting this right.

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Tom Weber | Writer

Tom Weber is an experienced, multilingual sports writer who specialises in European football and American soccer as part of his freelance work for FootballTransfers.

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