FIFA decision means Spain are almost guaranteed to win the World Cup final

Updated: 16 Jul 2026 05:39 CDT | 3 min read

Gianni Infantino, Lamine Yamal — © IMAGO

Cameron Smith | Digital Content Producer

Accredited sports journalist covering football since 2020

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Spain are almost guaranteed to win the 2026 World Cup final thanks to a recent trend in major tournaments.

Luis de la Fuente’s side saw off favourites France to book their place in Sunday’s showpiece final at the MetLife Stadium, and they will face reigning champions Argentina as they look to win the trophy for the first time since 2010.

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The Euro 2024 winners have only conceded one goal in seven matches at the tournament so far and in addition to their imperious unbeaten run - which now stands at 37 games - they will also have history on their side on Sunday.

Firstly, no team has successfully defended their World Cup crown since Brazil in 1962, but an even bigger reason why Spain will be confident is due to FIFA’s decision to schedule the semi-finals on different days.

INCREDIBLE 🔥

Spain one-two their way through the France defense and Pedro Porro doubles his country's lead... pic.twitter.com/DFGCLMzFUC
— ITV Football (@itvfootball) July 14, 2026

Why Spain are huge favourites to win the World Cup final

Spain’s clash against France took place on Tuesday, while Argentina played 24 hours later versus England. Of course, the reason behind this decision was to ensure the matches were separated for TV viewing purposes, but that extra day of rest has proven crucial in recent tournaments.

In fact, as confirmed by The Athletic, in 13 of the last 14 finals across men’s and women’s World Cups and European Championships, the side that played their semi-final a day earlier won. And on the only occasion this didn’t happen, the semi-finals were played on the same day.

The most recent team to win the World Cup or Euros when playing the semi-final one day later than their opponents was Spain back in 2010, who defeated Netherlands in the World Cup final thanks to an extra-time winner from Andres Iniesta.

So, history suggests that Spain will beat Argentina on Sunday and with Lionel Scaloni’s side having played two periods of extra-time throughout the knockout stages so far, their lack of rest could prove pivotal at the MetLife.