Donald Trump's nightmare scenario is coming true for the World Cup final

Analysis

FT Desk

Donald Trump's ideal scenario for the 2026 World Cup would have been for the United States to win the tournament for the very first time, and on their own soil no less.

That didn't happen, as the USMNT were unceremoniously dumped out of the competition at the Round of 16 stage after Belgium defeated them 4-1 in Seattle.

Now, Trump has avoided the very worst scenario for him personally, that would have seen the country the USA is currently in conflict with, Iran, miraculously winning the World Cup for the first time.

Still, he is on the cusp of another nightmare scenario and that's Spain lifting the famous gold trophy at MetLife Stadium in New York/New Jersey.

During his first presidency, Trump frequently criticised NATO allies for failing to meet the alliance's defence spending target of 2% of GDP. Spain was one of the countries he singled out because its military spending was below that benchmark.

Spain was also affected by Trump's trade policies. His administration imposed tariffs on a range of European goods during disputes with the European Union, impacting Spanish exports alongside those from other EU member states.

The President has also criticised Spain over issues such as defence spending and, at times, its economic policies.

Most recently, Trump has used the Nato summit in Ankara to lash out at Spain, saying he wanted to cut off all trade relations with the European nation, calling the country a "wasted cause" and "terrible partner in Nato".

The BBC reports that Trump is frustrated with Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez and Spain for not allowing the US to utilise bases at Moron and Rota for his war against Iran.

Trump wants Spain to increase defence spending, but so far, Sanchez's socialist government has said no.

Trade relations remained unchanged following the row, with sources in Madrid noting that the US recorded a trade surplus with Spain last year. Figures from the US Congress show bilateral trade reached $75bn (£56bn) in 2025, with the US exporting around $3bn more to Spain than it imported

The European Union has given its support for Spain in the row, with European Commission spokesman Olof Gill saying that trade between the EU and US was "deeply integrated and mutually beneficial".

"The Commission will always ensure that the interests of the European Union and all our member states are fully protected," he said.

At the conference on Wednesday, Trump also complained that the US had not received support in the war with Iran despite, he alleges, having spent over $1 billion protecting European nations from Russia.

Interestingly, Sanchez would later say that relations with Trump and the US were "very positive" at the moment and that they actually spoke about the World Cup itself.

"We talked about the World Cup... there was no tension whatsoever, on the contrary, it was all very friendly," said the Prime Minister.

With relations strained between the US and Spain at the moment, Trump certainly wouldn't relish seeing the Spaniards claim their second World Cup, this time on American soil, and especially with him set to be part of the trophy presentation.