How Italy risk missing a third straight World Cup

Carlo Garganese

• Updated: 7 Oct 2025 05:53 CDT
• 5 min read

FEATURE

Since the first World Cup was held in Uruguay almost a century ago in 1930, only one nation has won the trophy more times than Italy.

With four World Cups, the Azzurri are second (together with Germany) only to five-time winners Brazil in the record books.

They lifted the trophy in 1934, 1938, 1982 and 2006, while they were also runners-up in 1970 and 1994, and finished third in 1990 and fourth in 1978.

The two-time European champions are footballing royalty. They have produced many of football’s greatest ever defenders and goalkeepers; Paolo Maldini, Franco Baresi, Gaetano Scirea, Fabio Cannavaro, Alessandro Nesta, Giacinto Facchetti, Giuseppe Bergomi, Claudio Gentile, Giorgio Chiellini, Dino Zoff, Gianluigi Buffon. The list goes on and on.

Further up the pitch, Italy have been blessed with some of the most skilful, creative or productive footballers to take to the field. Roberto Baggio, Gigi Riva, Gianni Rivera, Bruno Conti, Alessandro Del Piero, Francesco Totti, Christian Vieri, Paolo Rossi, Roberto Bettega, Andrea Pirlo. There are far too many to name them all.

But those glory days are now consigned to the past.

Despite some decent showings in the Euros over the past 20 years - winning Euro 2020, runners-up at Euro 2012 and two quarter-final exits on penalties in 2008 and 2016 - Italy’s performance at the World Cup since their last triumph in 2006 has been abysmal by any nation’s standards.

They were knocked out in the group stages of South Africa 2010 with no wins and eliminated in the first round in Brazil 2014 with two losses, including a humiliating loss to Costa Rica.

Then, for Russia 2018, they failed to qualify for a World Cup for the first time in 60 years.

It was a national tragedy as they were beaten in a two-legged playoff by Sweden.

Most in Italy put it down to a one-off, a view that was reinforced by the Azzurri winning Euro 2020 just three years later.

But when Italy failed to qualify for Qatar 2022 after losing in a playoff to Macedonia at home, it was clear this was a sign of deeper decline.

An abysmal showing at Euro 2024 - where Italy only scraped through the group stages fortuitously before being played off the park and eliminated by Switzerland in the last 16 - deepened the crisis.

And now, things have gone from bad to worse.

Having played four of their 2026 World Cup qualifiers in UEFA Group I, Italy are almost certain to be heading to a third straight World Cup playoff.

Luciano Spalletti was sacked as manager in June and replaced by legendary ex-midfielder - although journeyman coach - Rino Gattuso.

Norway are running away with the group with a 100 per cent record of 15 points from five games and a +21 goal difference.

Italy are second with nine points from four games and a +5 goal difference.

Norway play Israel and Estonia at home before facing Italy away in their final match of the group, having defeated the Azzurri 3-0 in Oslo.

Italy play Estonia and Moldova away, Israel at home and finish off with Norway at home.

It’s a tough ask for Italy to overhaul Norway and take the only automatic qualifying spot from Group I.

Gianluigi Buffon, now Head of Delegation with the Azzurri, says Italy will "90 per cent" have to go through the playoffs. That is being optimistic.

If Norway beat Israel and Estonia at home, which seems highly likely, then Italy will have to win all four remaining matches and make up a goal difference of -16 on Norway.

We can almost certainly rule that out, which means that Italy will be relying on either Israel or Estonia to take points off Norway.

Everything points to another playoff, a scenario that ended in disaster in 2018 and 2022.

In the playoffs, Italy would have to navigate a precarious one-legged semi final (which would be at home) and a one-legged final (which could be either home or away).

The pressure on Italy to qualify is unbearable, having already missed the last two editions.

And if they failed again, it would mean that by the time the centenary edition of the World Cup comes around in 2030 the Azzurri would not have qualified for 16 years.

There are multiple reasons for Italy and Serie A’s sorry decline over the last 20 years. That is a deeper topic for another day but the bottom line is that Italy are no longer producing and developing the top class talent they previously had in abundance for decades.

And the result of all this is that the Azzurri really are at risk for missing a third straight World Cup.

This is not only a national tragedy, it is a tragedy for the whole sport.

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