Better than Enzo Fernandez: Chelsea identify €100m midfielder for Xabi Alonso

Analysis

Tom Weber | Writer

Chelsea have identified Atletico Madrid star Pablo Barrios as their preferred replacement for Enzo Fernandez, and the data suggests that he would be a sensational signing.

The Blues experienced - or rather endured - a hugely dramatic Deadline Day. Despite struggling to strike deals for AS Roma's Manu Kone and AS Monaco's Lamine Camara, Chelsea agreed to sell Fernandez to Man City for a joint Premier League record fee of €145 million.

Shortly thereafter, surprising developments at Everton, where Monaco's Folarin Balogun allegedly failed his medical, gave the West London club a lifeline. With the Ligue 1 side needing a major sale to balance the books and free up a non-EU spot, they changed their tune on Camara.

A €55m package was agreed, yet the Senegal international ultimately ended up staying at Monaco anyway because the principality club pulled the plug on the deal after renegotiating with Everton for Balogun - only for this transfer to collapse again, but that's not relevant here.

The window closed, and Chelsea were left without a replacement for Fernandez. To make matters worse, hours earlier they had sent Dario Essugo on loan to sister club Strasbourg, leaving themselves short on midfield options.

Chelsea identify Fernandez replacement

Naturally, then, Chelsea will now be linked with every midfielder under the sun for the next few months, and the rumour mill already started on Wednesday, when it was claimed that they were considering an approach for former Liverpool star Georginio Wijnaldum.

Nothing has come of it, and the latest big name to be linked with the Blues is Atletico Madrid star Pablo Barrios. The 23-year-old has been anointed Xabi Alonso's preferred replacement for Fernandez, Sport asserts.

The 23-year-old has racked up six senior caps for Spain to date, which doesn't seem like much, but considering how stacked La Roja is in his position, it is quite impressive. Indeed, Barrios is very highly rated, so much so that Atleti's current stance is that he is not for sale.

The midfielder has made 143 appearances under Diego Simeone since breaking into the team in 2022. He would be no like-for-like replacement for Fernandez, but this shouldn't be surprising - neither would Camara have been.

The Argentine was no obvious tactical fit for Alonso's system, so it makes sense for Chelsea to target a different profile. Barrios, like Camara, is significantly more defensive-minded than Fernandez. That does not mean that he is a worse player.

According to data analytics firm SciSports, Fernandez at 25 is slightly better than Barrios at 23, but the gap is marginal. Given that the latter is younger and, according to the experts, has higher potential, this difference will likely be eradicated in the not-too-distant future.

In fact, Moises Caicedo is the only midfielder at Chelsea with a higher current skill level and potential than Barrios. The 23-year-old would not be a downgrade on Fernandez - the bigger issue is prising him away from Atleti.

It is claimed that Chelsea would be willing to pay around €100 million for the Spaniard, but will this be enough in today's market? It actually might - unless prices keep rising.

His current Estimated Transfer Value (ETV) stands at €41.6m. Man City had to pay a €60m-€65m premium for Fernandez and Elliot Anderson, while Tottenham overspent on Mateus Fernandes by €70m.

If this is the going rate now, €100m-€110m could be enough for Barrios, but this would, of course, require the cooperation of Atleti. As things stand, it seems unlikely that they would be willing to sacrifice their midfield engine.