We are closer than you think to the first ever €1 billion football transfer

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FT Desk

We are apparently only five years away from seeing the first-ever €1 billion transfer in football.

At the moment, the most expensive football transfer in history was Neymar's €222m switch from Barcelona to Paris Saint-Germain in 2017. That summer, Kylian Mbappe also arrived at PSG on loan from Monaco but it would be the next summer they would trigger a €180m deal to sign the Frenchman permanently and that's the second-highest transfer fee ever paid.

In the years since the Neymar deal, no club has come close to matching or surpassing it, but Bank of America has conducted research that has predicted the billion mark will be reached by 2031.

The research appeared in The Beautiful Game report, which assessed current spending patterns, inflation, and the increasing impact that signing superstar players can have on clubs financially.

The report states that, on average, the price of signing top stars is increasing by 37% year on year. In the summer of 2025, Liverpool broke the British transfer record twice to sign Florian Wirtz from Bayer Leverkusen and then Alexander Isak from Newcastle for €125m and €145m, respectively.

Footballers are becoming more and more expensive not just due to their exploits on the pitch, but also the increased revenue they bring to a club due to sponsorships, social media followers and shirt sales.

There has indeed been speculation about a €1 billion transfer over the last 12 months and that relates to Vinicius Junior and a potential departure from Real Madrid to the Saudi Pro League. Though it looks more likely the Brazilian will stay in the Spanish capital, there have been approaches to Los Blancos with the one-billion figure on the table.

World record transfers

Neymar's move to PSG saw him claim the title for the biggest transfer of all time from Paul Pogba.

Pogba had previously set the all-time transfer record in 2016, with his move from Juventus to Manchester United costing €105m.

Gareth Bale, who left Tottenham for Real Madrid in 2013 in a €101m deal, held the record prior to Pogba and Neymar.

That move ended a four-year stay in top spot for Cristiano Ronaldo, whose own move to Madrid from Man Utd cost €94m in 2009. Such has been the rapid increase in market values, that move no longer even sits in the top 10.

Other holders of the world record transfer since the turn of the century have included Kaka (2009), Zinedine Zidane (2001), Luis Figo (2000) and Hernan Crespo (2000).

The transfer record changed hands five times between 1996 and 1999, being held by Ronaldo and Alan Shearer before the Brazilian striker won it back by joining Inter in 1997. He is the only player since the late Diego Maradona to hold the record twice.

After Ronaldo, Denilson and Christian Vieri then took the honour.