The Premier League's in-form player hates xG: 'A whole load of nonsense!'

Martin Macdonald

• Updated: 19 Jan 2026 07:34 CST
• 3 min read

Nieuws

Morgan Rogers, one of the most in-form players in the Premier League at the moment, apparently has no time for fixations on data in football, Expected Goals in particular.

Over the last five years or so, the Expected Goals (xG) metric has become commonplace in analysis of matches and even in scouting.

The term was developed by Opta, who analysed over one million football shots to determine the likelihood of a goal depending on the position a particular shot was struck. The further away from goal or further to the wing, the lower the xG rating.

One of the teams outperforming their xG this season is Aston Villa, who have scored 33 goals against an xG of 30.67. Part of the reason for this is that they have scored a number of goals from outside the box in 2025/26.

Ironically, Aston Villa had a better xG than Everton on Sunday yet lost 1-0 to the Toffees at home.

Their star player, Rogers, admits he and Aston Villa under Unai Emery don't spend a lot of time analysing such data.

"I think it's a whole load of nonsense,” the England man said of xG on Sky Sports. “It feels like a crime with xG putting you down!

“If you actually look at shots we're hitting, they're good options to take. We're not taking pot luck shots. We are well within our right to take those shots, and every team would have taken that shot too.

"The manager always said to our midfielders last season, 'I'm still waiting for goals from edge of the box'.

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿💎 𝐎𝐅𝐅𝐈𝐂𝐈𝐀𝐋 | Morgan Rogers (23) has won Aston Villa's Goal of the Month award for this strike against Manchester United. 🥇💫 pic.twitter.com/Z6rQFxOpo9

— EuroFoot (@eurofootcom) January 14, 2026

“You can’t always score the perfect goal, from a cross or a tap in. There’s different ways to score goals.

“We are utilising that to our advantage and it is working. There’s different ways to score goals. There’s not a right or wrong way to score.

“On paper the percentages might be against you, but not if you keep doing it. There’s got to be a point where if you keep doing it, and it keeps coming off and people keep scoring, then this isn’t luck.

“Sometimes when you are in a stadium and you hear people shout shoot, then that’s what fans want. They want excitement, enjoyment, shots and goals to win games. That’s what they want to see."

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