Football’s €1bn transfer is coming: Why Neymar’s record could soon be obliterated

Analysis

FT Desk

Football's first €1 billion transfer is a matter of years away, with Neymar's record predicted to fall by 2031.

The Brazil international made a €222 million switch from Barcelona to PSG in the summer of 2017 in a deal that remains the most expensive football transfer in history.

No club has come close to breaking that mark in the near decade since, with Kylian Mbappe's €180m move from Monaco to Paris that same summer (initially on a loan with an obligation to purchase), still the second-highest deal.

But don't expect these marks to stand for too much longer.

According to research that appeared in The Beautiful Game report, which assesses current spending patterns, inflation, and the increasing impact that signing superstar players can have on clubs financially, football's first €1bn transfer will arrive by 2031.

The report states that, on average, the price of signing top stars is increasing by 37% year on year. In the summer of 2025, Liverpool broke the British transfer record twice to sign Florian Wirtz from Bayer Leverkusen and then Alexander Isak from Newcastle for €125m and €145m, respectively.

Players are becoming more and more expensive not just due to their exploits on the pitch, but also the increased revenue they bring to a club via sponsorships, social media followers and merchandising.

Indeed, there has already been speculation that a €1bn deal could be in the pipeline. Real Madrid's Vinicius Junior had been rumoured to make such a move to the Saudi Pro League for that figure, and while this has since quietened, there are clubs with the capacity to make such a historic agreement.

World record transfers

Neymar's move to PSG saw him claim the title for the biggest transfer of all time from Paul Pogba.

Pogba had previously set the all-time transfer record in 2016, with his move from Juventus to Manchester United costing €105m.

Gareth Bale, who left Tottenham for Real Madrid in 2013 in a €101m deal, held the record prior to Pogba and Neymar.

That move ended a four-year stay in top spot for Cristiano Ronaldo, whose own move to Madrid from Man Utd cost €94m in 2009. Such has been the rapid increase in market values, that move no longer even sits in the top 10.

Other holders of the world record transfer since the turn of the century have included Kaka (2009), Zinedine Zidane (2001), Luis Figo (2000) and Hernan Crespo (2000).

The transfer record changed hands five times between 1996 and 1999, being held by Ronaldo and Alan Shearer before the Brazilian striker won it back by joining Inter in 1997. He is the only player since the late Diego Maradona to hold the record twice.

After Ronaldo, Denilson and Christian Vieri then took the honour.

The 50 most expensive transfers ever

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