Ricardo Pepi to Fulham: The numbers behind the smart €35m Premier League bet

Robin Bairner

Updated: 19 Mar 2026 14:33 GMT
4 min read

Fulham are closing in on a €35m deal to sign PSV striker Ricardo Pepi, a move that would make the 23-year-old one of the most expensive signings in the club’s history.

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For a team that has struggled badly for goals and is effectively paying almost double his Estimated Transfer Value to get him, the data suggests this bet on Pepi’s finishing and fit could be a smart one for both player and club.

Sky Sports reports the one of the smartest deals of the summer is close to being completed. Here's why it promises so much.

‘A goal scorer who always scores’

Pepi’s scoring rate this season has been formidable. Despite not being an automatic pick for PSV – something he went on the record to complain about as early as November 2024 – he has found the net 13 times in the Eredivisie and Champions League, once every 83 minutes on average.

By contrast, Fulham have struggled for goals. Harry Wilson is their leading marksman with 10 across all competitions while Raul Jimenez is one back having played 39 times. Though a scorer of 67 Premier League goals in his career, at 34, his time at this level is drawing to an end.

The Cottagers’ other options are Rodrigo Muniz (one goal in 17 appearances) and Jonah Kusi-Asare, who has played only 103 minutes and has yet to get off the mark.

Current ETV

Ricardo Pepi

F (C)

PSV

Ricardo Pepi

F (C)

PSV

ETV Range

€16.4M - €20.1M

This explains Fulham’s motivation to pay almost exactly twice Pepi’s Estimated Transfer Value (ETV) of €18.2m to get the deal done early.

The USMNT star comes with a glowing report from PSV, meanwhile.

“He has a very important quality for a striker: he can score goals. That's really a specialty of his. He has an incredibly hard shot with a lot of precision, with which he can score. He is a goal scorer who always scores. Every club is looking for that,” head coach Peter Bosz said.

Fulham a perfect step for Pepi

Pepi has made a smart move by moving to Fulham. The Premier League club is a dream fit for the American forward, according to data analytics firm SciSports, which loves the chances of this deal being good for both the player and the club.

Fulham get a Club Fit score of 81 from the experts, which is based on a variety of factors, including development opportunities, pitch time, playing style and formation.

Marco Silva’s side, which is one of the most stable in the whole of the Premier League, score perfectly in terms of style and formation, and though only rated two stars for playing time, in reality Pepi is liable to get more opportunities than this suggests.

Expert opinion: Pepi deadly close to goal

FootballTransfers Eredivisie expert Willem Leigraf said of the deal: “Despite his injury history, resulting in him being ruled out for six months last season and two months this season, Pepi has managed to make a great impact in the Eredivisie for PSV. His stats this season are way above the average Eredivisie centre-forward.

“Where it's noticeable how good Pepi is with the ball and close to the goal, with 1.89 shots on target per 90 minutes and a scoring average of a goal per 90 minutes.”