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Huge Ekitike: The €100 million gamble only Liverpool could make
Analysis
Liverpool have signed Hugo Ekitike from Eintracht Frankfurt.
The Reds have completed the signing of the French striker for an initial €91.5 million, with another €12.5 million in potential add-ons, effectively making Ekitike a member of the €100 million signing club.
Spending that much money on any player is a risk, but when it's a 23 year-old who has just 50 career goals to their name and scored just 15 Bundesliga goals last season? It's a colossal gamble, but it's a gamble that Liverpool are uniquely placed to make.
Current ETV
Hugo Ekitiké
F (C)
Liverpool
Hugo Ekitiké
F (C)
Liverpool
ETV Range
€64M - €78.2M
Part of the reason why Ekitike was rejected by PSG and has otherwise not really been on the radar of the world's elite sides until now is because he isn't a prolific goalscorer.
50 career goals in 151 appearances is far from a lethal ratio. Added to that he's only scored more than 20 goals in a single season once, and that was this past season 2024/25.
All told he had 15 goals in the Bundesliga, 3 in the DFB Pokal and 4 in 12 Europa League appearances. Leading a reasonably impressive total of 22 goals in 48 appearances.
Ekitike is not a lethal finisher
The first thing to note is that it's just the second time in his career he's even managed double fires league goals and the last time was when he scored 10 in 24 games for Reims (earning a move to PSG where he hit just 3 in 25 appearances).
Secondly, 4 in 12 in the Europa League is far from impressive, especially considering he drew a blank as Spurs came to Frankfurt and eliminated Eintracht in their own back yard (though to be fair to Ekitike his goal in the first-leg was delightful).
Finally, 15 goals is an unimpressive total for league goals when you're the club's 6'4 striker. This is especially apparant because Omar Marmoush also ended the season with 15 Bundesliga goals and he left Frankfurt in January to join Man City.
The goal total (26th among all players in Europe's top five leagues) gets even more ridiculous when you consider that Ekitike took 114 shots had an xG of 21.6!
STATS
Hugo Ekitiké
F (C)
Liverpool
Hugo Ekitiké
F (C)
Liverpool
That is seventh-most shots in Europe's top five leagues and the sixth highest Expected Goals! Only Erling Haaland, Serhou Guirassy, Mohamed Salah, Kylian Mbappe and Robert Lewandowski had more xG than Ekitike.
Frankfurt generated enough chances that all Ekitike had to do was hit his mark consistently and he would have gotten at least 22 Bundeslige goals.
Instead he undershot his xG by 6.6, a frankly ridiculous level of underperformance which is the absolute worst in Europe's top five leagues, even managing to beat out Abde Ezzalzouli's hilarious 6.0 underperformance.
Hugo Ekitike is a huge gamble
For most clubs, a striker like that is not good enough. That's because most clubs are in the position where they need their no. 9, their main striker, to be their main goalscorer.
Robert Lewandowski, Harry Kane or Erling Haaland, for example, are no. 9's who play the head of their team, and are responsible for most of the team's goals.
Sure, there's the chance Ekitike might continue to rattle off the goals like he did for Frankfurt. Hell, he may even start finishing in line with his xG!
But that's a gamble, because you can't know for sure.
And taking such a gamble when Frankfurt want you to pay €100 million? Yeah, that's not happening (Benjamin Sesko is having similar issues over in Leipzig).
But Liverpool did sign him! And Liverpool are run by Richard Hughes and Michael Edwards, two of the smartest minds in football.
Salah, Isak and Liverpool's ability to gamble
So what gives?
Well, Liverpool (and Real Madrid, thanks to Mbappé) are in the exceedingly rare position of being able to accommodate Ekitike's lower goal total.
Liverpool's best player, after all, is Mohamed Salah. The Egyptian King had a brutally dominant season last year, leading the Reds to win the Premier League and earning himself individual awards galore and a fat contract renewal.
STATS
Mohamed Salah
F (CR), M (R)
Liverpool
Mohamed Salah
F (CR), M (R)
Liverpool
All told Salah had 34 goals across all competitions, 29 of which came in the Premier League. He was relentlessly prolific in a way that would allow Ekitike to come in and start as the no. 9 and not have to worry about perhaps only scoring 15 league goals, because he will be the club's secondary goalscorer anyway.
This gives him time to level up his game, to hone his craft. It gives Arne Slot time to teach him to be clinical, to take his chances at a more consistent rate.
Moreover, Liverpool's enduring interest in Alexander Isak presents the very real possibility that Ekitike may even be placed as Liverpool's third goalscoring option.
Isak has recently informed Newcastle that he wants to leave the club, with many speculating that Liverpool is his preferred destination (although he does have a mammoth offer from Al-Hilal, as well).
STATS
Alexander Isak
F (C)
Newcastle Utd.
Alexander Isak
F (C)
Newcastle Utd.
If Isak joins the Reds, as it seems likely that he will, then he would be the side's no. 9 without a doubt (62 goals in 109 games for Newcastle, he is certified). Ekitike would then compete to be his back-up, or play minutes out on the wing.
Either way, the demand on Ekitike to score simply wouldn't be as great as it would almost anywhere else, and he could take his time to find his feet as a goalscorer while still using the rest of his impressive skill-set to help Liverpool thrive.
Signing Ekitike is a massive gamble, but it is also a gamble that Liverpool Football Club are uniquely positioned to make, and make a tremendous success.
Read more about:
UEFA Champions League
Premier League
Liverpool
Alexander Isak
Hugo Ekitiké
Mohamed Salah
