Haaland or Mbappe? Solving Real Madrid's transfer conundrum

Updated: 23 Oct 2023 16:51 BST
5 min read

Kylian Mbappe, Erling Haaland, Real Madrid — © ProShots

Real Madrid's 2023 summer transfer window will go down as one of the club's most triumphant ever - but there was one clear oversight.

The signing of Jude Bellingham has been nothing short of a stunning success for Real Madrid. After the underwhelming transfers of Eden Hazard and Aurelien Tchouameni - with the latter showing plenty of promise but still finding his feet - the Englishman has almost instantly become one of the club's most stunning Galactico arrivals in recent years.

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Bellingham's goals have adequately replaced Karim Benzema, but many Real Madrid fans still believe that the club ultimately made a mistake by only signing Joselu as a proper number nine in the summer. The German-born Spaniard has been exactly what many expected him to be: solid but unspectacular.

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Real need a star striker. Kylian Mbappe continues to be heavily linked with Los Blancos, while the name of Erling Haaland still makes the hearts of Madridistas race. Indeed, reports over the summer that were recently repeated in the Spanish press suggest that gauging, as Real Madrid tend to do, the feeling in the fanbase, many would prefer the Norwegian over the Frenchman, especially after the latter's 2022 transfer U-turn.

But who should Madrid try to sign? Let's consult the data.

Haaland or Mbappe?

Several factors need to be taken into account when attempting to sign a player. Costs and whether the player actually fits into the team are just two of many and the ones we will be focusing on here.

Let's talk about expenditure first. While Kylian Mbappe is out of contract in 2024 and, therefore, free to choose his next club in January, Haaland is under contract at Man City until 2027.

Both would, of course, command a massive salary and other contract-related expenses, but Haaland would naturally come at a much greater cost given that he would additionally require a lavish transfer fee - this point would obviously become moot should Mbappe extend his PSG deal between now and January.

There are several release clauses in Haaland's contract whose price decreases as the years pass. In 2024, that sum reportedly amounts to €200 million, so Mbappe would likely come much, much cheaper. However, what about the stylistic fit?

Mbappe is a player who can create something out of nothing, the complete package, whereas Haaland is much more reliant on his teammates to fashion chances for him to convert. At Real Madrid, however, Haaland would have those players around him, so this shouldn't be a worry.

Personality-wise, the Norwegian may be a better fit as Mbappe wants to be the main man, the star of the side, something that could be tough to achieve with Bellingham and Vinicius Jr around, especially since the latter occupies Mbappe's preferred position on the left wing.

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Consulting SciSports, which collects thousands of data points to show the ideal club for a player, we can see that here too Haaland appears to be the better choice. The Norwegian boasts a Club Fit rating of 77 at Real Madrid, compared to Mbappe's 69.

The SciSports algorithm believes that the Los Blancos' current formation does not suit the Frenchman at all, though this may of course change if Carlo Ancelotti departs at the end of the season, as he is expected to do.

Ultimately, both players have their merits and would be a massive commercial success for Real Madrid, yet taking all of the above into account, Haaland would - despite his steep price - potentially suit Los Blancos more than Mbappe.