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News
- 21 Jul 2026
Could Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Updated: 21 Jul 2026 16:47 CDT |
7 min read
Analysis
The 2026 Ballon d'Or voting could be as competitive and close as ever, so much so that even 39-year-old Inter Miami megastar Lionel Messi could have a realistic shot at winning the award.
This year's edition of football's most prestigious individual prize is expected to be presented on 26 October, and with the World Cup now in the books, there is surprisingly still no household favourite to win it.
Previously handed out to the best performer in a calendar year, the Ballon d'Or now recognises performance over the course of a summer-to-spring season. The award is voted for by the top journalists from the 100 highest-ranked FIFA nations.
At the end of the day, though, it is a popularity contest. Harry Kane is the current bookmakers' favourite to scoop the award because he scored an inordinate amount of goals in 2025/26. But will he actually win the Ballon d'Or? Probably not.
Kane is not a popular choice (except for the English voter), he won neither the World Cup nor the Champions League and most of his goals came in the Bundesliga - a one-team league that his club, Bayern Munich, are expected to dominate.
Who could win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
The most likely recipient of the 2026 Ballon d'Or appears to be Lamine Yamal, who claimed a domestic double with Barcelona last season and who is now a World Cup winner at just 19.
Yamal finished runner-up in 2025 voting and notched 24 goals and 18 assists in 2025/26. And yet, he can hardly be described as an overwhelming favourite. Barcelona flamed out in the Champions League, and he wasn't at his best at the World Cup due to injury.
His compatriot Rodri, the winner of the 2024 Ballon d'Or, had an unbelievable World Cup, claiming the tournament's Golden Ball, but he is coming off a poor club season with Man City.
France superstar Kylian Mbappe won the Golden Boot in the World Cup, LaLiga and the Champions League, but he finished the campaign without any silverware to speak of.
2025 winner Ousmane Dembele is also among the favourites, but he spent much of the early part of last season out injured, and he did not hit the same heights as in 2024/25.
Indeed, despite PSG retaining their Champions League crown, it seems a longshot that any of their players will win the Ballon d'Or. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Vitinha both had outstanding seasons, but the former was not at the World Cup, while the latter struggled (recency bias is always a factor in the Ballon d'Or voting).
Bayern star Michael Olise enjoyed an all-timer of a season at Bayern Munich, but he failed to perform on the biggest stage: he was anonymous in the crucial second leg of Bayern's Champions League tie with PSG and also for France in the latter stages of the World Cup.
Erling Haaland won the Premier League Golden Boot and was the darling of the World Cup, but he doesn't have much silverware to show for his 2025/26 season. The same applies to the Premier League's Player of the Season, Bruno Fernandes.
Jude Bellingham had a great World Cup for England, but he was also part of Real Madrid's disastrous season, much of which was spent nursing shoulder and hamstring injuries.
Pedri was incredible for Barcelona early on, but his form eventually fell off a cliff due to being overplayed, and he even lost his place in Spain's starting eleven at the World Cup. He is no longer even among the most realistic contenders for the award.
Declan Rice should probably have a genuine shot at winning the 2026 Ballon d'Or after being Arsenal's iron man during their Premier League-winning season. But come on, it's Declan Rice. Who is actually going to vote for Declan Rice?
Making the case for Messi
There isn't a single player - with the exception of maybe Yamal - where you would think, "Yeah, he was definitely the undisputed best player in the world in 2025/26." So, what about Messi?
Well, the 39-year-old won MLS Cup last winter, he became the first player in MLS history to be named MVP in consecutive seasons, he claimed the league's Golden Boot with 29 goals in 28 games and, had Argentina won the World Cup, he would comfortably have beaten Rodri to the Golden Ball.
There is no world in which the Spain midfielder would have won that award had Messi led the Albiceleste to back-to-back World Cups. The 39-year-old was the only reason why Argentina even managed to reach the final. He was unplayable when he got on the ball.
In possession, he is still the best player in the world - and comfortably so. No other player has the footballing brain and the skill to pull off the things Messi does on a frighteningly regular basis.
He even showed that in the final despite Spain doing an incredible job at making sure that he didn't get on the ball much. When La Roja scored in extra time and started to drop deeper because the nerves understandably kicked in, Messi began working his magic. The only difference to previous games was that Argentina didn't take their chances.
People were shocked by how good Messi still is because most don't follow MLS. But to fans of the league, Messi's performances were not surprising. He's been destroying MLS since he arrived in 2023.
Obviously, people will say, "Oh, it's just MLS." And, of course, it's just MLS. It's not a top-five league. But MLS has been making noticeable strides, with TacticsFreeZone arguing that it was comfortably the sixth-most successful league at this summer's World Cup in every conceivable metric (even when disregarding Messi's numbers).
The fact that Messi is currently among the Ballon d'Or favourites despite playing in MLS should tell you that the league can't be completely discounted. Yes, he was the most eye-catching player at the World Cup, but he didn't actually win the thing, so it can't be purely down to his exploits this summer.
And this is probably where Messi's Ballon d'Or hopes could come unstuck. Had he won the World Cup, there is a decent argument to be made that he would be the clear favourite for the prize right now. But, ultimately, he didn't win it.
That said, with the way the voting works, there is every chance that Messi could secure top spot despite not being everyone's top choice. The journalists are tasked with picking their top 10 players, and a specific number of points is allocated to each spot.
First gets 15 points, second gets 12 points and so on. Given that there is no household favourite this year, and accounting for various biases the voting journalists may have, there could be enough spread among the numerous top options to see Messi come first by virtue of being everyone's second or third choice.
The Messi factor here is obviously important, too. This is Lionel Messi, after all. This is the greatest player of all time (unless you're Brazilian or Portuguese). He will naturally receive votes just because he is Messi.
If some rando were putting up Messi numbers and performing at the World Cup, he wouldn't receive Ballon d'Or votes due to playing in MLS. But this isn't some rando - this is Messi. The name alone carries weight, and again, Ballon d'Or voting is a popularity contest.
Sentimentality also matters. We've probably just witnessed Messi at his last World Cup. It was most likely his last dance. A record-extending ninth Ballon d'Or would be the perfect send-off.
What would a Messi Ballon d'Or mean for MLS?
Should Messi indeed win the Ballon d'Or this year, it could have two very different consequences for MLS: it could either have no meaningful impact because it's Messi and not a "normal" MLS player, or it could be a genuinely monumental boost for the league's legitimacy.
The latter is the less likely scenario because MLS is still widely regarded as a retirement league, and its recent major transfers (Antoine Griezmann, Robert Lewandowski) haven't done much to shake that perception.
A Messi win would show other players that you can go to MLS and still be recognised as a great of the sport, but at the end of the day, only systemic change could spark a genuine revolution in the perception of MLS, not a shiny ball won by the greatest player of all time.
Either way, though, it would be historic for the league as it would make Messi the first active MLS player to properly win a Ballon d'Or. He won the award after he arrived in 2023, but that was due to his triumphant 2022 World Cup and his final season at PSG, not because Miami *check's notes* beat Nashville SC in the final of Leagues Cup in August.
To date, Messi is one of just two Ballon d'Or winners to have actually played in MLS, the other being former Orlando City star Kaka, who won the 2007 edition.
This fact alone illustrates that it would be a pretty big deal, even if it would only serve as a brief PR boost rather than anything that could meaningfully affect MLS in the long term.
