Why Man Utd’s Endrick transfer plan is a mistake

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Robin Bairner | Chief Editor

Manchester United’s transfer policy has come under fire after Michael Carrick’s side won only one of their first four Premier League matches of the season – prompting the Old Trafford side to scramble to make new signings in January.

Several areas of the park were strangely ignored in the transfer window just gone, with no left-back or attacking reinforcements recruited.

Already United are seeking to redress the balance and have taken an interest in Real Madrid attacker Endrick via a loan move in January.

Current ETV

Endrick

F (C)

Real Madrid

Endrick

F (C)

Real Madrid

€28.5M

ETV Range

€25.6M - €31.3M

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While Real Madrid have insisted that the 20-year-old Brazil international is going nowhere, this is a situation that is likely to be fluid. Much will depend on Jose Mourinho’s use of the young striker, who injury has restricted to just four minutes of action so far this season.

But Carlos Espi’s early season form at the Bernabeu is cause for concern for the youngster. The ex-Levante man has arrived and scored two goals in 25 minutes of La Liga action and must be considered the natural backup for Kylian Mbappe in the No.9 role following such a performance.

Could Endrick look to the right wing instead? Yan Diomande, Arda Guler and Brahim Diaz all provide competition there – and that’s even before Rodrygo returns from injury in January.

Competition is, therefore, fierce, and AS is not ruling out a second January loan for the Brazilian should not be ruled out, but it would be a mistake for both Man Utd and the player to strike this deal.

Why Endrick is the wrong option for a January loan

If United are going down a loan route, they need a player who can make an impact on their side immediately. Endrick, for all his strengths and potential, does not yet fall into this bracket at this point of his career.

He had a semi-successful loan stint at Lyon last year, scoring five Ligue 1 goals in 16 matches but, perhaps more interestingly, delivering seven assists. His performances were not consistent, with the highs very high and the lows very low.

Will an extra year to mature provide him the tools required to be a consistent force for Man Utd during a six-month loan?

Leading data analytics firm SciSports doubts it. Its SciSkill measure, which is drawn from hundreds of in-game data points, still puts Endrick behind Benjamin Sesko and Joshua Zirkzee in terms of current ability, while he would also have Marcus Rashford to battle for the No.9 role.

From United’s perspective, meanwhile, there is little sense in taking Endrick on to develop for a brief period only to send him back to Real Madrid in the summer.

Endrick is a player for the long term

Signing Endrick on a permanent basis, though, is more plausible for United, according to SciSports, whose Career Advice tool suggests a transfer would be a smart all-round move – but only in the long term.

The Red Devils can offer Endrick a balance between playing time and development that is almost unmatched elsewhere – including Real Madrid. This is reflected in SciSports’ Career Advice tool, which assigns a Club Fit figure to teams based on a wide variety of metrics, including potential development, game time, playing style and formation.

United earn a Club Fit score of 75 for Endrick in his favoured centre-forward role, notably scoring four stars in development. Real Madrid, on the other hand, score an overall 72.

Endrick, though, is not a short-term solution at Old Trafford. If United want him, they should find a way to do the deal permanently and not simply act as a development vehicle for Real Madrid.