Henry Winter: England v Wales, Lions v Dragons, Tuchel v Bellamy

Analysis

When England were humiliated by Iceland at Euro 2016, the players' pain was deepened on seeing a viral video of Wales players celebrating their loss. They felt it disrespectful.

The Welsh were certainly daft to let footage filmed by a player somehow escape on to social media. England didn't forget and took their anger into the World Cup group game against the Welsh at the 2022 World Cup.

Speaking to Luke Shaw before the match, we were left in no doubt how motivated England were. They duly thrashed Wales 3-0.

In October, England play Wales for the first time since Qatar and the game is ambitiously billed as a friendly. It can't be. There's too much rivalry, too much water under the Severn Bridge. England should have taken Welsh mocking as a compliment, a reminder they are still stirred by history and a desire to undermine opponents too often perceived as overlords.

Even the England press team has felt the Dragons fire. Back in the noughties, we were playing a fund-raiser at Ninian Park for a local hospice. The Welsh press team were determined to win and packed their side with those with loose media connections like lan Rush, Mark Hughes, Neville Southall and Micky Thomas. To deal a knockout blow to our flickering chances Wales even had the heavyweight Joe Calzaghe in their corner - and at their corners. There wasn't a rush to mark him.

It's natural competition between neighbours. It's why England fans cheered Patrick Kluivert's goal for the Netherlands against their own side at Wembley at Euro '96; it meant the Dutch stayed in the tournament and Scotland were out. It's why my respect for the Scottish tennis champion, Andy Murray, grew when he said he would support whoever England's opposition were. It showed that Murray was a real fan of Scotland, and football, and was guided by tribalism.

So the England-Wales friendly should be intense, probably physical.

The fans will demand that. Whether the managers do is another matter.

Craig Bellamy's side face Belgium in Cardiff four days later in a World Cup qualifier that could help decide the group. The following evening, Thomas Tuchel's Three Lions side take on Latvia in Riga where victory seals qualification with two games to spare. They won't want any injuries.

The build-up will doubtless be framed as more associated with Bellamy, such a fiery competitor during the Welshman's playing days, than Tuchel, who sees a tactical test not a cross-border skirmish. Yet Bellamy proves far more thoughtful and measured a manager than many anticipated. He's always analysed the game.

I did interviews with him during his playing career, especially during controversial periods at Liverpool and Newcastle, and there'd be an interesting half-hour on the record and then a fascinating half-hour with the tape off when he'd elaborate on the strengths and weaknesses of his and other teams. Of course, Bellamy will tap into the rivalry to ensure his team are properly motivated, and the travelling 5,000+ Wales fans at Wembley will expect nothing less. But there will be a considered game plan.

As too the home side. Tuchel has found a 4-2-3-1 system that suits England, fielded players in their best positions and was rewarded with a mood-changing 5-0 win over Serbia in Belgrade in September when they finally added up to the sum of their substantial parts. Tuchel ignored previous criticism that followed England's drab 2-0 victory over Andorra. I saw him back-stage at Villa Park and he looked totally relaxed, clicking his fingers to an imaginary song as he strode down a corridor. Tuchel is supremely self-confident, doing things his way, and totally ignoring media campaigns.

He picked Jordan Henderson for off-field, leadership reasons, much to public and press consternation.

Tuchel doesn't board bandwagons. He only starts them.

There was some surprise when he picked and started winger Noni Madueke, whose pacy, penetrative running down the right against Serbia fully vindicated the decision. The season began with plenty of negativity around Madueke. Some Arsenal fans even had a petition to try to stop their club buying him from Chelsea. Madueke showed his high-grade ability in Belgrade.

Tuchel is tackling England's long-standing issues at holding midfield, left-back and left wing.

He gave Elliot Anderson his chance anchoring midfield, allowing Declan Rice to express himself in a box-to-box role. That's worked. Myles Lewis-Skelly and Tino Livramento have impressed at left-back. Djed Spence has been given a surprise chance there. Tuchel has his favourites, and Marcus Rashford's presence has surprised many. But Tuchel knows that Rashford can bring fierce acceleration to left wing. He's also finding that Rashford may be most successful from the bench.

The September internationals revealed that Tuchel, very much his own man, will suggest one thing in public and then do another. He insisted England would go more long-ball and long-throw against Serbia, conjuring up headlines of long-ago English football. Were putting it in the mixer, running the channels and flick-ons really back in fashion? No. England sensibly mixed up direct attacks, set-pieces and the sort of flowing moves that brought three of the goals in Belgrade. Marc Guehi built from the back, Anderson dropped back to help moves. England played good football.

Tuchel still has the Jude Bellingham issue to address. He used Eberechi Eze as a No.10 against Andorra but the Arsenal new boy was disappointingly hesitant. Morgan Rogers was far more effective against Serbia. Tuchel has Cole Palmer too, while Bellingham is widely considered one of the best players in the world. When Bellingham (fully) returns from his shoulder rehab, the Real Madrid star knows there is strong competition for places and Tuchel is not swayed by reputation - nor by any of the British hysteria about history.