One Year From 2026 FIFA World Cup: Who are the Favourites?

FT Desk

• Updated: 2 Sept 2025 14:38 BST
• 3 min read

News

It’s amazing how quickly time flies. It feels like just yesterday we were watching Lionel Messi achieve ‘GOAT-hood’ by inspiring Argentina to victory against France in the 2022 FIFA World Cup Final, but here we are again, just one year out from doing it all over again. The 2026 FIFA World Cup is set to take place from the 11th of June to the 19th of July 2026, and some of us are already putting down our bets about who’s going to win.

Okay, it’s a very narrow ‘some’. In fact, perhaps it’s just us! But there are plenty of signs that give us a good idea of who’s going to go far in this championship, and there’s no one saying World Cup betting has to be done as soon as the tournament kicks off – in fact, it can be beneficial from an odds perspective to get in there early, while the bookmakers are still adjusting. With this in mind, we wanted to take a moment to run through our favourites, explaining exactly why they might go far and whether they will be the ones to lift the FIFA World Cup Trophy on that fateful day in July.

Spain

We have to start with Spain. Right now, the odds for this team are around 6-7/1, with implied win probabilities between 14% and 15%. This makes them a top favourite heading into the tournament next year, and coming off their Euro 2024 victory, they’re surely going to have the confidence to do it. With rising talents including Pedri and Yamal, this team has the consistency and belief to go all the way, so long as they hold their nerve and play their best games when the tournament demands it.

France

Speaking of playing their best games, France has been struggling in recent years to peak at the right time. With France winning the World Cup in 2018, they were just pipped to the post in 2022, with Argentina being the team to peak during the final of the tournament and lift the cup. But there’s every chance 2026 could be different. Led by global star, Kylian Mbappe, experts are calling France the ‘most complete team on paper’, and so there’s no reason why they shouldn’t be a genuine contender.

England

This one might be a bit of a long shot for some people, but England is beginning to make a habit of playing their best football during the biggest tournaments. Set at 7/1 – indicating around a 12% to 13% chance – their new coach Thomas Tuchel has been bringing in some much needed tactical upgrades to get them to go the extra mile, and with a golden generational core – including Bellingham, Foden, and Kane – they have the manpower to make a huge impact when 2026 hits.

Argentina

How could we not mention Argentina? Being the FIFA World Cup winners in 2022, they will similarly have the confidence to go all the way and do it again – and if they were to do that, they’d be the first team since blah blah to win back-to-back World Cups. There have been some questions about Messi’s 2026 status, and that might play a big factor in their ability to compete with the best, but if he is involved, it’s going to take a mammoth of a team to stop him.

Brazil

Perhaps that mammoth is Brazil. With odds around 6-7/1, with implied winning chances of 13%, the Brazilian team are certainly heading into 2026 with fire in their bellies. They have been in fine form in recent years, with renewed attacking talent, Rodrygo and Endrick, restructuring their squad to make Brazil a genuine contender. They have a history with the World Cup, having won five titles, so there won’t be a lack of confidence. We’ll just have to wait and see whether they can continue to play in the way they have been playing. One year is a long time, after all. But then again, as we mentioned, it’s also no time at all!