Nottingham Forest ready to pay £40m for Premier League player worth just £5m

Updated: 29 Aug 2026 16:57 BST | 4 min read

Harrison Armstrong, Everton, 2026/27 — © IMAGO

Robin Bairner | Chief Editor

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In a summer of astonishing transfers, Nottingham Forest could be about to complete the most incredible.

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Oliver Glasner’s side are working on a £40 million (€46.7m) transfer for Everton's Harrison Armstrong, who is set to become their second-most expensive signing ever, according to a report from The Athletic.

If you’re not familiar with Armstrong, don’t fret. The 19-year-old midfielder has played barely 600 minutes of Premier League football for Everton, having spent much of the last two season in the Championship with Derby and then Preston.

Current ETV

Harrison Armstrong

M (C)

Everton

Harrison Armstrong

M (C)

Everton

ETV Range

€4.8M - €6.5M

He did start the opening match of the season for David Moyes’ men against Crystal Palace, producing an assist for Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall to open the scoring in a 2-0 win.

Nevertheless, he is not a player who boasts the type of profile that makes him an automatic candidate for such a transfer fee.

Forest are paying eight times Armstrong’s estimated value

The scale of Nottingham Forest’s proposed deal becomes clear when Armstrong’s transfer fee is compared with his estimated value.

In percentage terms, Forest are ready to make the biggest overspend of any club this summer given that Armstrong’s Estimated Transfer Value (ETV) sits at just €5.7m (£4.9m) based on hundreds of in-game data points.

Forest’s transfer fee is €41m more than the player’s worth in absolute terms.

In itself, this would push him into a small group of players clubs have overspent on – one that is led by Yan Diomande to Real Madrid – but what’s truly startling about this deal is the estimated overspend in percentage terms.

Armstrong’s transfer fee is more than 8x more than his transfer value. There is no comparable deal this summer to this. The closest thing is Chelsea’s signing of Marco Palestra from Atalanta for €57m, which was around 4.5x more than his valuation.

© IMAGO - Harrison Armstrong, Everton to Nottingham Forest

Forest have done this before

Inevitably, Forest will ace accusations of financial irregularities, yet the Trentside club have ammunition against that.

When they signed Elliot Anderson from Newcastle in 2024, the €41.2m fee they paid for him was deemed dramatically excessive. Instead, the England international briefly became the Premier League’s most expensive player ever when he was sold to Manchester City this summer for €135m. That alone is a ringing endorsement of the club’s transfer policy.

Armstong is joining Forest to fulfil that same role that Anderson did in their side, so while his price looks high – bordering on astronomical – this is a side that appears to know what its doing when signing young English midfielders from their Premier League rivals.

The similarities in the two deals are clear, and now all that remains is for Armstrong to realise that potential on the pitch.