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Analysis
- 1 minutes ago
Why Chelsea must AVOID signing Joao Pedro this summer
Cameron Smith
- Updated: 23 May 2025 18:14 BST
- 5 min read
Analysis
Chelsea have reportedly stepped up their pursuit of Brighton & Hove Albion forward Joao Pedro and are set to submit a €60 million offer for the 23-year-old.
The Brazil international is expected to leave Brighton this summer, amid interest from a plethora of top Premier League clubs, and an internal disciplinary suspension means he may have already played his final game for the club.
Current ETV
João Pedro
F, M, AM (C)
Brighton
João Pedro
F, M, AM (C)
Brighton
ETV Range
€55.2M - €67.4M
Arsenal and Liverpool are also reportedly eager to land Pedro ahead of the 2025-26 campaign, but Chelsea are pushing to reach an agreement before the start of the Club World Cup and talks will “intensify” following the Europa Conference League final against Real Betis.
Chelsea are hoping to sign a new striker this summer and Pedro has emerged as an alternative target to Napoli’s Victor Osimhen and Ipswich Town’s Liam Delap following a successful two-year spell at the AMEX Stadium.
However, the Blues would be making a rather bizarre transfer decision if they decide to purchase him.
Why Chelsea shouldn’t sign Joao Pedro
Firstly, it’s worth noting that Pedro is a fantastic football player. He is capable of playing in a multitude of attacking positions, he is immense at progressing play via a pass or a carry and he is incredibly disciplined out of possession.
However, he is effectively a hard-working version of Joao Felix and Christopher Nkunku. He's not a striker and he's not a No.10; he's the epitome of a false nine. And the last thing Chelsea need is a false nine occupying the space Cole Palmer operates best in.
They need an out-and-out centre forward capable of firing them to major honours.
Nicolas Jackson is the perfect profile for Enzo Maresca's system, as the Blues boss has admitted on multiple occasions, given his ability to stretch play in behind, drop deep to link up with team-mates and press intensely. But, his finishing doesn’t appear to be of a high enough quality to suggest he is the striker Chelsea need to win the Premier League title.
Pedro, for all his attributes, isn’t that player either. He isn't a pure number nine and his best work at Brighton has come alongside Danny Welbeck in a front two - a system Chelsea don't play.
One look at the Brazilian’s underlying data proves he is a player who excels in a free-roaming second-striker role - just like the aforementioned Felix and Nkunku, both of whom failed to break into Maresca’s preferred starting XI this term.
Pedro ranks extremely well for progressive passes, progressive carries and successful take-ons, but his non-penalty xG per 90 tally stands at just 0.23 - only the 59th best of any player to have amassed more than 1,000 Premier League minutes this term. Jackson, by comparison, has a non-penalty xG per 90 of 0.50.
Pedro’s tally of 10 league goals this season also includes five penalties and given Cole Palmer’s presence, he likely wouldn’t take spot kicks at Chelsea, so that avenue for goals would be removed entirely if he moves to Stamford Bridge.
STATS
João Pedro
F, M, AM (C)
Brighton
João Pedro
F, M, AM (C)
Brighton
In fact, the Brazilian has only scored 10 non-penalty goals in 58 Premier League appearances for Brighton and that isn’t a tally that suggests he is capable of becoming the prolific goalscorer Chelsea need.
If they want to win major honours next year, Chelsea require a number nine who is ready to score 30 goals across all competitions in a season and, despite his talent, Pedro isn’t the player to fill that role.
Football transfer news headlines today
Chelsea eye Ethan Nwaneri deal amid Arsenal 'concerns'
Enzo Fernandez to Real Madrid: Chelsea's transfer plan CONFIRMED by Maresca
Joao Pedro to Chelsea: €60m offer prepared as Brighton talks 'intensify'
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