Supercomputer predicts 2026 World Cup winner

Tom Weber

• 3 Dec 2025 14:01 CST
• 4 min read

News

Data analytics firm Opta has put its famous Supercomputer to work and simulated the potential outcomes of the 2026 World Cup.

The tournament in the US, Canada and Mexico will be the largest World Cup to date, with a whopping 48 teams competing for football's ultimate prize in the summer.

The expansion of FIFA's showpiece event means that a new knockout phase - a round of 32 - has had to be added, which will hopefully provide even more excitement and unpredictability than previous editions.

FIFA has also altered the pathways for the world's four highest-ranked nations, which it claims will improve "competitive balance." Spain, Argentina, France and England cannot meet each other until the semi-finals if they top their respective groups.

The groups will be determined at the World Cup draw on 5 December, and there are still six teams that can qualify via the playoffs in March. Nevertheless, Opta has already provided some very early tournament predictions from its supercomputer.

Spain the clear favourites to win 2026 World Cup

According to the simulations, reigning European champions Spain are the clear favourites to take home the trophy at MetLife Stadium on 19 July, 2026. Luis de la Fuente's men have a 17 per cent chance of winning.

Somewhat surprisingly, the team with the next biggest chance of winning is France with 14.1 per cent, despite a poor Euro 2024 and some disappointing qualifying performances.

England are the third-biggest favourites to triumph at the World Cup. Thomas Tuchel's Three Lions have an 11.8 per cent chance of success, followed by reigning champions Argentina with only an 8.7 per cent chance.

Germany, who are a bit of an enigma heading into the tournament, are given a 7.1 per cent probability, with reigning Nations League champions Portugal clocking in at 6.6 per cent.

Record champions Brazil and the Netherlands, who have famously never managed to get over the hump, are given similar chances of success with 5.6 per cent and 5.2 per cent, respectively.

Norway, spearheaded by the unstoppable Erling Haaland, and the never-to-be-underestimated Colombian national team complete Opta's top 10 with winning probabilities of 2.3 and 2 per cent, respectively.

By contrast, the three host nations are given minuscule odds of success. Mexico, despite being in turmoil, are deemed the most likely to win the tournament with a 1.3 per cent chance over the US's 0.9 and Canada's 0.4 per cent.

The likelihood of Scotland winning the World Cup stands at 0.2 per cent, the same as Australia, South Africa, Iran, Tunisia and debutants Uzbekistan.

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