Julian Alvarez to Barcelona? La Liga giants given just 1% chance of dream transfer

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Robin Bairner | Chief Editor

Accredited football journalist and editor covering the game since 2006

Barcelona continue to chase Atletico Madrid striker Julian Alvarez, but the Camp Nou side has been given an alarming forecast for their chances of landing the Argentine.

Alvarez has been one of the hottest topics in the transfer market this summer, with the Catalans already having made a €100 million bid for him that president Joan Laporta claims is still on the table.

Real Madrid have offered Atletico Madrid €150m for Alvarez in a deal that appeared more publicity stunt than serious.

Current ETV

Julián Álvarez

F (C)

Atlético Madrid

Julián Álvarez

F (C)

Atlético Madrid

€103.7M

ETV Range

€93.4M - €114.1M

View full profile

PSG and Arsenal have also been tracking the Argentine, with FootballTransfers exclusively revealing on Thursday that the Gunners are still seeking a player in his mould.

In response to this interest, Atleti have dug their heels in, pointing to the player’s €500m release clause as the figure to prise him away from the club this summer and mocking their La Liga rivals on social media.

Alvarez, though, is publicly exerting pressure on his employers to allow him to depart.

Speaking at the World Cup after Argentina’s 2-0 group stage win over Austria, he said: “I spoke with the people I needed to speak with [at Atletico], and the best thing for everyone is a transfer.

“I want to fulfil my dream. It’s ‌not the time ‌to talk about this, but I also can't ‌hide it. I try to be an honest person.”

Barcelona given a 1% chance of signing Julian Alvarez

With Alvarez having made Barcelona his priority, the Blaugrana have long been considered front runners to sign him. But the Catalans have now been dealt a sobering prediction for their prospects of signing the former Manchester City attacker.

“There’s very little chance of him joining Barcelona,” Cadena SER journalist Miguel Martin Talavera explained.

“The most likely scenario is that he stays with Atletico Madrid. He won’t be sold to Barcelona. Not for €100m, not for €150m and not for €200m.

“I give a 1% probability that Julian Alvarez will sign for FC Barcelona this summer.”

Julian Alvarez: What happens now?

Atletico Madrid remain in control of the situation. Alvarez is still under contract until 2030, while his Estimated Transfer Value (ETV) sits at €104m and was as high as €129m as recently as March, providing justification for Diego Simeone’s side to rubbish Barca’s €100m offer.

Arsenal may still be able to push open the door for the 26-year-old with a mega-money offer. Atleti are, of course, reticent to sell one of their best players to a direct rival in Spain, but it would be more palatable for them to offload him to a Premier League club.

All the signs are, however, that Julian does not want a return to England, while Arsenal are unlikely to make such an enormous bid for the Argentine.

No doubt the noise around Alvarez will continue until the deadline, but Atleti’s determination to keep the forward is clear.

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