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News
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January’s best deal: How a little-known Portuguese club pulled off a transfer for the ages
Analysis
Premier League fans may have dismissed West Ham’s signing of striker Pablo as a futile attempt to save a doomed season, but in Portugal, the deal will be perceived very differently.
Pablo went to West Ham for about €23m as the first signing under head coach Nuno Espirito Santo. Just six months ago, he arrived at Gil Vicente for €250k.
That means West Ham paid 92 times what Gil Vicente paid for the same player, just half a year apart.
Current ETV
Pablo
F (C)
West Ham
Pablo
F (C)
West Ham
ETV Range
€1.5M - €2.2M
Pablo’s agent, Jorge Mendes, is thought to have owned a stake in his client’s transfer rights before the West Ham move, according to Claret & Hugh, while his boyhood club, Familicao, may also own a stake.
Even if those stakeholders took 50% of Pablo’s transfer fee, Gil Vicente still made a profit of around €10m on a player they had for six months.
How Pablo raised his transfer value
Pablo played 945 minutes across 13 league appearances for Gil Vicente.
He scored 10 goals.
Those 10 goals were scored on 5.7 expected goals (xG), and that came from just 20 shots in those 13 matches.
That’s a 50% conversion rate for a striker who turned 22 only a few days ago.
STATS
Pablo
F (C)
West Ham
Pablo
F (C)
West Ham
Pablo also tends to find the net at the right time. He scored the only goal in two 1-0 wins for his club, and he scored the opening goal in all four of his club’s 2-0 victories thus far.
The forward missed four matches for Gil Vicente between November and December, and the club failed to win once in that stretch.
Gil Vicente are currently in fourth place in Liga Portugal, which would be the highest finish in club history if they can hold onto it without their talisman.
Has West Ham solved its No. 9 problem?
In the goalscoring charts, West Ham are currently joint-fifth from the bottom with 22 goals, and they sit 18th in the Premier League table, seven points from safety.
Only four of the club's goals have come from a No. 9, and Callum Wilson scored each of the four.
Wilson has only started in eight of his 17 appearances, meaning the club needed an energetic forward to start matches.
Pablo played the full 90 minutes just twice at Gil Vicente this season, so he is used to making an impact before departing for fresh legs.
The Brazilian forward was signed — along with experienced former Lazio striker Valentin Castellanos — to fix the No. 9 issues that stretch back at the very least to the days of Michail Antonio, the last Hammers forward to score at least 10 goals in consecutive seasons.
Considering the fortunes of West Ham’s high-profile striker signings since then — Niclas Fullkrug, Gianluca Scamacca, Sebastien Haller — it remains to be seen if Pablo is the solution.
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