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News
- 44 minutes ago
Why Arsenal should END Julian Alvarez pursuit
Analysis
Arsenal are reportedly working on a deal to sign Atletico Madrid forward Julian Alvarez.
While Alvarez is a Premier League-proven player from his time with Manchester City, signing him makes little sense for Arsenal.
Current ETV
Julián Alvarez
F (C)
Atlético Madrid
Julián Alvarez
F (C)
Atlético Madrid
ETV Range
€108M - €132M
The main reason why relates to Arsenal’s — and manager Mikel Arteta’s — use of Viktor Gyokeres, the club’s marquee striker signing who arrived in the summer transfer window.
The Swedish striker joined the club for €65.8 million after scoring 54 goals and providing 12 assists in 52 appearances for Sporting Club de Portugal last season.
It’s safe to say that Arteta and Arsenal have not allowed Gyokeres to play to his strengths, which should make fans wonder if things would be any different with Alvarez up top instead.
Gyokeres’ lack of involvement leads to struggles
In his final season with Sporting, Gyokeres averaged 42.4 touches per game, which put him in the 88th percentile of strikers in comparable European leagues.
That led to 39 league goals in 33 matches, although 12 of those goals were penalties. He also attempted 4.46 shots, made 1.93 dribbles, and created 1.99 chances per 90 minutes.
So far at Arsenal, he is getting 24.0 touches per game, leading to 2.13 shots, 0.33 successful dribbles, and 0.73 chances created per 90 minutes.
STATS
Viktor Gyökeres
F (C)
Arsenal
Viktor Gyökeres
F (C)
Arsenal
Naturally, his production has fallen off a cliff with just five goals in 20 Premier League appearances.
Part of the reason for his decline is the difference in talent between Liga Portugal and the Premier League, but the massive change in his playing style has also had a negative effect.
He appears to be instructed to occupy opposing centre-backs instead of dropping off to get on the ball, and he has not been able to get the better of many centre-backs in duels this season.
Would things be different with Alvarez?
Gyokeres is more of a battering ram while Alvarez relies on finesse and skill, but the Argentine World Cup winner also likes to get on the ball, as he averages 52.0 touches per 90 minutes.
If Arteta were to use Alvarez in a manner similar to Gabriel Jesus, it could work.
In the 2023/24 season, Jesus’s last mostly-healthy campaign, he got 53.8 touches per 90 minutes across his 27 league appearances (17 starts).
Alvarez has the potential to be a more efficient version of Gabriel Jesus. The Argentine scored 17 goals on 14.3 expected goals (xG) last season, while the Brazilian has tended to score below his xG throughout his career.
STATS
Julián Alvarez
F (C)
Atlético Madrid
Julián Alvarez
F (C)
Atlético Madrid
The success of any striker signing will largely depend on how willing Arteta is to play to that striker’s strengths.
The Spanish manager has not done so with Gyokeres, so it must be questioned whether he would adjust his system to get the most out of Alvarez.
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