Roberto Firmino: Have Liverpool made a €30m mistake with Brazil striker?

Sam McGuire | Editor

Liverpool have a finite transfer budget.

As a club, they generally spend what they earn. The sale of Philippe Coutinho to Barcelona, for example, funded moves for Virgil van Dijk and Alisson Becker. The Reds cashed in on Rhian Brewster and Dejan Lovren to help finance moves for Thiago and Diogo Jota in 2020 while the arrivals of Darwin Nunez, Calvin Ramsay and Fabio Carvalho were largely covered by the departures of Sadio Mane, Neco Williams, Takumi Minamino, Marko Grujic and Ben Davies.

Knowing this is how their model works makes the decision to let Roberto Firmino enter the final six months of his contract even more bizarre.

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The Brazil international has an Expected Transfer value of €30 million according to our Transfer Fee Prediction model. That sort of fee covers a large chunk of Cody Gakpo’s initial cost, with the former PSV attacker moving to Anfield in a deal worth €42m.

You could also make the argument that a €30m fee would be a serious downpayment on, say, Moises Caicedo. The Brighton midfielder was named as a potential option for the Merseysiders in a recent feature.

It is money that could be reinvested in the squad. Yet there is every chance the 2019/20 Premier League champions don’t see that cash.

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Firmino heading for a free

Firmino is free to negotiate with clubs now and recent reports have seen him linked with a move to Saudi Arabia. West Ham United are believed to be interested too. The threat of the No.9 leaving the club has divided the fanbase.

On one hand, you have those who think his services should be retained and you can understand why. He is currently the joint-top scorer for the Reds in the Premier League with seven strikes. His return of three assists in the English top-flight can only be bettered by Mohamed Salah (4) and Andrew Robertson (5). Firmino has also chipped in with two goals and an assist across 357 minutes in the Champions League this term.

Dig a little deeper though and you realise two goals and three assists arrived in a single match, the 9-0 win over Bournemouth. It is a similar story in Europe with all of his goal involvements coming in the 7-1 win against Rangers.

These matches cannot be overlooked or ignored but his return of nine goals and four assists isn’t as impressive when you consider five goals and three assists occurred across two games.

Should moments, whether they be goals or assists, take priority over performances in general? Your answer to that will no doubt shape how you view Firmino’s season to date.

Furthermore, Liverpool have made questionable decisions on contracts in the past and they really aren’t in a position to repeat those mistakes. A new contract for the 31-year-old would have to favour the club more than the player.

Prior to the World Cup, Jurgen Klopp confirmed talks are underway, saying: “Normal conversations are happening, so we will see what happens there.”

However, that was before the arrival of Gakpo. Some believe Liverpool pushed ahead with that deal after the loss of Luis Diaz to another knee injury. With Jota ruled out until February, it left the Reds short in attack. But it is worth noting that Firmino was also injured at the time of the transfer too.

It is becoming a bit of a regular occurrence.

The former Hoffenheim man went from being a constant in the XI to frequently missing matches. It started during the 2020/21 campaign. He played a lot of minutes over a five-season period and now all of that football is catching up to him. Liverpool have been reluctant to offer contract extensions to players from that core group of players from Klopp’s first iteration at Anfield. Gini Wijnaldum and Adam Lallana departed on frees while the club initially didn’t want to extend Jordan Henderson’s contract. The manager had to intervene to prolong his captain’s time on Merseyside.

The German tactician may want to intervene to prolong his No.9's stay at Anfield but his hands could well be tied this time. Can Liverpool really justify an extension when they have five first-team attackers and three youngsters vying for minutes? The signing of the Dutchman means the Reds now have an array of options, with Klopp having Gakpo, Darwin, Diaz, Jota, and Mohamed Salah at his disposal while Carvalho, Harvey Elliott and Ben Doak are all intriguing options in the final third.

In an ideal world, Liverpool, with their finite budget, would’ve used his transfer fee to refresh the squad. They could salvage this situation though. Firmino’s salary, believed to be over €170,000-per-week, could help finance a package for a Jude Bellingham.

The Reds have a model reliant on sales. They are going to have to start making some soon.