Why Arsenal won’t sign Vinicius Jr despite Real Madrid transfer twist

26 Jul 2026 11:38 BST | 5 min read

Vinicius Junior, Real Madrid, 2025/26 — © IMAGO

Robin Bairner | Chief Editor

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The possibility of Vinicius Junior leaving Real Madrid this summer has exploded following revelations that Arsenal are seriously interested in signing the Brazil international.

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Contract talks between the attacker and his club have been stalled for months, and with a year remaining on his current deal, the prospect of the 26-year-old departing the Bernabeu remains a real one.

With Los Blancos suddenly entering the race to sign Yan Diomande from RB Leipzig, the possibility of Vini departing has increased, but what’s going on and could he really move to Arsenal?

Current ETV

Vinícius Júnior

F (CL), M (L)

Real Madrid

Vinícius Júnior

F (CL), M (L)

Real Madrid

ETV Range

€96.2M - €117.6M

Vini Jr’s contract renewal

Vinicius Junior’s contract situation remains complicated, with vastly different reports in the Spanish media underlining just how unclear his position is.

According to AS, for example, Vini and Real Madrid have only a “very minimal” difference between what they have put on the table. It claims that they want to continue together but neither is budging from their position. In addition, it says there is no connection to his future and Diomande's transfer.

By contrast, Jorge Picon claims that a sizeable gulf remains. He reports:

“The reality is that at Real Madrid, all scenarios have already been laid out on the table. The renewal remains just as distant as it has for months, and in Valdebebas, there is no intention to improve the offer.

“In fact, the club conveyed to Vinicius's agents that while the priority was to renew him, in case he wanted to leave, they were open to reaching an agreement for his sale, given that there is an increasingly real risk of him leaving for free in 2027.

“At the club, some believe there is no longer any way to avoid him entering that dreaded final year of his contract, although they do not rule out a renewal sometime during the 2026/27 season.”

It is with this background that The Athletic suggests Arsenal could launch a surprise move for the winger.

© IMAGO - Vini Jr in action for Brazil, 2026 World Cup

Why Vini won’t be going to Arsenal

Arsenal are trying to take advantage of the confusion by making a move, yet the prospect of the Emirates club completing a deal appears distant due to the scale of Vini Jr’s wage demands.

Speaking to Sky Sports, Spanish football expert Terry Gibson laid out the demands of the player:

"Vinicius Jr is currently on €15 million a year net. Real Madrid have offered him €20m. He wants €30m - just over €550,000 a week net.

“There's no budging on the contract from Real Madrid or Vinicius. Real Madrid are looking at a potential replacement in Yan Diomande from RB Leipzig. This has been ongoing for 18 months.

“But when you put those figures in the melting pot, it's hard to imagine Arsenal or anybody in the Premier League matching those sums of money.”

Putting this in an Arsenal context underlines how big these demands are.

The Gunners’ current top earner is Bukayo Saka, who has a gross salary of £19.5m (€22.8m), according to Capology. Factor tax into that and his net pay is estimated to be around £10.3m (€12m).

Arsenal would therefore have to shatter their wage structure in order to sign Vini even at his current wage level of €15m. And remember he is currently demanding twice that figure.

On top of this, there is a transfer fee to factor in. This would be in excess of €100m, with Vini one of 20 players who posts an Estimated Transfer Value (ETV) above this figure.

The Gunners’ philosophy in squad building has been underpinned by balance and a focus on the team ethic. Signing Vini would throw that out the window, indicating that it is unlikely to be a deal that Mikel Arteta’s side pursue any further.