Arsenal need a Jordan Henderson - not an Odegaard
Sam McGuire
- Updated: 6 Nov 2023 15:31 GMT
- 5 min read
Defeat against Newcastle United was Arsenal’s first loss of the season in the Premier League. It wasn’t necessarily a deserved loss either. To say the winning goal scored by Anthony Gordon was a controversial one would be an understatement.
Some people believe the ball had gone out of play prior to the cross. Despite spending quite a bit of time looking at it, VAR couldn’t conclusively say the entire ball was over the line. There appeared to be a clear foul on Gabriel too, with Joelinton using both hands to shove the Arsenal centre-back out of the way. Again, though, VAR determined it to be a fair challenge. There was also an argument that Gordon was offside but the camera angle didn’t allow for those checking the goal to pinpoint exactly when Joelinton touched the ball, so they couldn’t rule it out.
Mikel Arteta made his thoughts known at full-time and Arsenal have since backed their manager with an official statement. The focus has almost been exclusively on that moment. It means there’s been no real autopsy of the game at St James’ Park. And that is fortunate for the Gunners.
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Arsenal's worrying trend
Despite dominating the ball, they created next-to-nothing against Newcastle. They had 59% possession and had 14 efforts on the night but created zero big chances and finished the game with an Expected Goals total of just 0.57.
It is the third time in their last five outings that Arsenal have failed to create chances worth over one Expected Goal. For a team with title aspirations, that is going to be a bit of a concern. Simply put, they aren’t able to turn their dominance into high-value chances.
In the mid-week loss to West Ham United in the Carabao Cup, they finished the game with an Expected Goals haul of 0.73. In the 2-2 draw with Chelsea a couple of weeks back, their efforts had an Expected Goal value of 0.99.
They managed to carve out opportunities worth 1.93 Expected Goals against Sevilla and 2.77 in the 5-0 win over Sheffield United. But, looking at the numbers, the latter was very much an exception to the norm this term. For context, the Gunners rank seventh in the Premier League with 2.1. Exclude the heavy win over the Blades, however, and that figure drops to 1.8.
Arsenal rank sixth for Expected Goals (19.5 across their 11 outings) but are 15th for Big Chances Created with 13. By comparison, Liverpool created six big chances in their draw with Luton Town.
A struggling Saka
The attackers at the Emirates are struggling but Bukayo Saka might be the biggest victim in all of this. The No7 started the season in fine form and at one stage he had a goal involvement in eight consecutive matches.
Saka is now without a goal in the Premier League since September and he’s failed to register an assist in his last four outings for the Gunners.
It isn’t as though it is just bad luck either. The England international just isn’t a threat right now. Against Newcastle, he had just one shot and it had an Expected Goal value of 0.02. He created one chance and attempted a single dribble but failed to complete it.
It was a similar story against Sheffield United. Arsenal ran riot but Saka did not. The 22-year-old had zero efforts and created just one chance. In the win over Seville, the versatile attacker had two shots but had an Expected Goals total of just 0.03 to really emphasise how low-value these attempts were. He created three chances and attempted two dribbles but was far from a serious threat against the LaLiga side.
In the draw with Chelsea, he had no shots but did finish with an assist having created three chances. He also finished the game having completed three of his four dribbles but that was the last time he had a goal involvement.
Arsenal need a Henderson
On paper, the Arsenal team looks well-balanced and pairing Martin Odegaard or Kai Havertz with Saka on the left makes sense. In practice, though, this could be one of the reasons the 30-cap international is struggling to impose himself on matches at the minute.
Both Odegaard and Havertz are left-footed so they want to take up central positions to get the ball onto their stronger side. The Arsenal captain is ball-orientated too so isn’t one to do a lot of dummy runs to create space.
With the right-back regularly inverting, it means Saka is often isolated in wide areas with no teammate looking to overlap or underlap. The No7 isn’t able to influence things centrally because of this and it is hurting the Gunners from an attacking point of view.
Arteta wants to raise the technical floor of this team but he might need to find his very own Jordan Henderson to truly help Saka fulfil his potential. The former Liverpool skipper did a lot of work without the ball to create situations for Mohamed Salah and he played a significant part in the ex-Chelsea forward winning the Golden Boot on three occasions.
To get Arsenal firing, they might need to add a Henderson to their ranks and sacrifice an Odegaard.
